000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 14.1N 123.4W at 0300 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. This makes Dora a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A small eye has cleared out this evening, with numerous strong convection is within 75 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently estimated around 34 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 150 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the NW quadrant, 75 nm in the SE quadrant, and 60 nm across the SW quadrant. Dora will continue to move westward over the next several days. Some minor fluctuations in strength are possible tonight and Fri. Weakening is then expected late Friday through Sunday. Seas will continue to be over 20 ft through Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 90W from 04N to Guatemala, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over land between Honduras and southeastern Mexico. However, no significant convection is noted over the adjacent Pacific waters at this time. A tropical wave is along 100W-101W from 07N northward to southern Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 16N between 97W and 106W. A tropical wave is near 139W from 03N to 18N with an associated 1011 mb low near 11N139W. The wave is moving west at 15 kt, while the low is drifting west near 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 134W and 142W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N71.5W to 09N76W to developing low pres near 13.5N102W 1009 mb, to 10.5N117W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N117W to 08.5N127W to 11.5N137W. Outside of convection described above with the tropical waves, widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 07.5W east of 88W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 13.5N between 106W and 118W, and from 05N to 16N between 107W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1025 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 32N131W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and low pressure over the northern Gulf of California continues to produce fresh to locally strong N to NW winds are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters southward to Punta Abreojos, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes, where seas area 4-6 ft. Strong thunderstorms have recently moved from land, westward across the waters between Manzanillo and Mazatlan, where strong gusty winds to 30 kt have likely occurred. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also noted south of the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshore waters with seas 5-7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, expect fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off Baja California Norte this evening through Sun, before high pressure shifts NW and weakens across the region. Looking ahead, a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected to develop from this feature during the next day or so, and environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. In response, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected to develop along the southern Mexico and Baja California offshore waters Friday through the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Afternoon scatterometer data depicted moderate NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 07N with seas to 4 ft in SW swell. Except for moderate N winds across the western Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle S winds are noted S of 07N, with locally moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along the Colombia coast. For the forecast, moderate with locally fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse to between fresh to strong late tonight into early Fri morning, then continue this trend through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Looking ahead, expect moderate southerly winds with increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, mostly moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Locally fresh winds are noted along the tropical wave and low pressure near 11N139W. Seas range 5 to 8 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will continue to move W to W-SW over the next few days, then gradually slow down. E to SE swell will continue within 120-180 nm NE through NW of Dora during this time. The intensity of Dora may fluctuate modestly tonight through Fri before a slow weakening trend is expected. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through tonight with combined seas reaching 8 to 9 ft. This swell is expected to subside by Friday. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Stripling