000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032130 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 14.4N 121.8W at 03/2100 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 100 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently around 29 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 150 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the NW quadrant, and 75 nm in the southern semicircle. Dora will continue to move westward over the next several days. Some strengthening is possible tonight. However, weakening is expected on Friday and Saturday. Seas will continue to be over 20 ft through Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 88W from 04N to El Salvador, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave is along 100W from 07N northward to southern Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 98W and 106W. A tropical wave is near 138W from 03N to 18N with a 1011 mb low near 10N, and moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 137W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N107W to 08N128W. The ITCZ extends from 08N128W to 09N136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 84W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 107W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also noted south of the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshore waters with seas 5-7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms are noted in the southern Mexico offshore waters, with strong thunderstorms south of Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, expect fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off Baja California Norte this evening through Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected to develop from this feature during the next day or so, and environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. In response, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected to develop along the southern Mexico and Baja California offshore waters Friday through the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest scatterometer depicted moderate NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 07N with seas to 4 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle S winds are noted S of 07N, with locally moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the Colombia coast. For the forecast, moderate with locally fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse to between fresh to strong late tonight into early Fri morning. This nightly trend is expected to continue through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate NE to SE to SW winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Looking ahead, expect moderate southerly winds with increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, mostly gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Locally fresh winds are noted along the tropical wave near 134W. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will move to 14.1N 124.3W Fri morning, 13.8N 127.4W Fri afternoon, 13.5N 130.4W Sat morning, 13.3N 133.5W Sat afternoon, 13.0N 136.9W Sun morning, and 12.8N 140.4W Sun afternoon. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through tonight with combined seas reaching 8 to 9 ft. This swell is expected to subside by Friday. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ AReinhart