000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 14.7N 120.1W at 03/1500 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt which makes Dora a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 100 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently around 32 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 120 nm in the northern semicircle and within 75 nm in the southern semicircle. Dora will continue moving westward at a similar forward speed for the next few days. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Seas will continue to be over 20 ft through Sat night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 86W from 04N to Nicaragua, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen based on the latest analysis. A tropical wave is along 99W from 06N northward to the southern Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 95W and 94W. A tropical wave is near 138W from 04N to 18N with a 1011 mb low near 11N, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found within 200 nm NW of the low. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rice near 09N84W to 10N107W to 09N127W. The ITCZ extends from 09N127W to 08N136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 78W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Dora. Moderate to rough seas associated with residual swell of Dora are impacting the waters near Clarion Islands this morning. Moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are also noted south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca offshore waters with seas 5-6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms are noted in the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora is well west of the Revillagigedo Islands offshore waters this morning. Residual swell from Dora will continue to subside, allowing seas near Clarion Island to drop below 7 ft by late this afternoon. Farther north, expect fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off Baja California Norte this afternoon into Sat. Looking ahead, environmental conditions appear to be favorable for a tropical wave currently offshore of Oaxaca State, southern Mexico to develop further. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as this system moves generally northwestward, about 100 nm offshore parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. In response, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected to develop between Baja California Sur and Michoacan State, Mexico Fri through Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo with 4 to 5 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 07N with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted S of 07N, with moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the Costa Rica coast. For the forecast, moderate with locally fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse to between fresh and strong late tonight into early Fri morning. This nightly trend is expected to continue through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate NE to SE to SW winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Looking ahead, expect increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands late Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Locally fresh winds are noted along the tropical wave near 134W. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will move to 14.8N 120.8W early this evening, 14.4N 123.9W later tonight, 14.2N 127.0W Fri morning, 13.8N 130.2W Fri afternoon, 13.5N 133.3W Sat morning, and 13.3N 136.6W Sat afternoon. Dora will change little in intensity this morning, then a gradual weakening trend will begin this afternoon. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through tonight with combined seas reaching 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ AKR