000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031021 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Category 4 Hurricane Dora is centered near 15.0N 118.5W at 03/0900 UTC, and moving west at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently around 27 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 75 nm in the NE and SW quadrants, 40 nm in the SE quadrant, and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. Dora will continue moving westward over the next few days. Dora is forecast to maintain it current intensify through this morning, then a gradual weakening trend is expected afterward. Seas will continue to be over 20 ft through Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 83W from the northwestern Caribbean Sea southward across Costa Rica and Panama into the east Pacific. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen based on the latest analysis. Another tropical wave is near 97W from the western Bay of Campeche southward through southern Mexico into the east Pacific. It is moving west around 10 kt. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring near the coast of Guerrero and Oaxaca States of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is found farther south from 08N to 13N between 94W and 102W. A third tropical wave is near 136W from 19N southward through a 1011 mb low at 11N136W, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 04N to 08N between 133W and 137W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from near the border of Colombia and Panama through 12N97W to 13N112W then resumes from 11N119W to 09N128W. Scattered moderate convection is present near and south of the trough from 03N to 07N between the Colombia coast and 81W, and from 05N to 11N between 104W and 128W. An ITCZ extends westward from 09N128W to 10N133W then resumes from 08N137W to beyond 140W at 07N. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 180 nm south of both ITCZ segments. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Dora. Moderate to rough seas associated with residual swell of Dora are impacting the waters near Clarion Islands this morning. Moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are also noted south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca offshore waters with seas 5-6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms are noted in the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora is well west of the Revillagigedo Islands offshore waters this morning. Residual swell from Dora will continue to subside, allowing seas near Clarion Island to drop below 7 ft by late this afternoon. Farther north, expect fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off Baja California Norte this afternoon into Sat. Looking ahead, environmental conditions appear to be favorable for a tropical wave currently offshore of Oaxaca State, southern Mexico to develop further. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as this system moves generally northwestward, about 100 nm offshore parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. In response, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected to develop between Baja California Sur and Michoacan State, Mexico Fri through Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo with 4 to 5 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 07N with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted S of 07N, with moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the Costa Rica coast. For the forecast, moderate with locally fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse to between fresh and strong late tonight into early Fri morning. This nightly trend is expected to continue through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate NE to SE to SW winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Looking ahead, expect increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands late Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Locally fresh winds are noted along the tropical wave near 134W. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will move to 14.8N 120.8W early this evening, 14.4N 123.9W later tonight, 14.2N 127.0W Fri morning, 13.8N 130.2W Fri afternoon, 13.5N 133.3W Sat morning, and 13.3N 136.6W Sat afternoon. Dora will change little in intensity this morning, then a gradual weakening trend will begin this afternoon. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through tonight with combined seas reaching 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Forecaster Chan