000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021618 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Aug 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 15.6N 114.2W at 02/1500 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 112W and 116W. Maximum seas are over 20 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 45 to 90 nm from the center. Dora will have a westward to west- southwestward motion over the next several days. Dora is rapidly intensifying and is forecast to become a major hurricane later today. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by the end of the week. Seas will continue to be over 20 ft through the rest of the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific off the coasts of Panama and Colombia, passing through 79W north of 05N at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted along the coast of Panama. A tropical wave extends along 94W north of 08N through southern Mexico and is drifting west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 91W and 96W. A tropical wave extends along 133W from 07N to 19N and is moving west around 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is noted where this wave is interacting with the monsoon trough near 12N. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm north of the center of the low. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N83W to 09N110W to 07N125W. The ITCZ extends from 07N125W to beyond 07N140W. In addition the convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 17N between 90W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 117W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Dora. Rough to very rough seas associated with Dora are impacting the waters south of Socorro and Clarion Islands. A small area of fresh N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther south. Seas are around 6 ft in this area. Moderate to locally strong N to NW winds are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms are noted in the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of Hurricane Dora depicted in the Special Features section above, expect fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off Baja California Norte late Thu into Sat. Looking ahead, environmental conditions appear favorable for development of a low pressure off the southern Mexico coast. A tropical depression is now likely to form by this weekend. This system is forecast to move west- northwestward or northwestward, moving parallel to but not far off the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of developing in 48 hours and high chance of developing in 7 days. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas between Cabo Corrientes and Baja California Sur late Sat and Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo with 4 to 5 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 03N with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted S of 03N, with moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the Panama coast. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. Moderate to fresh gap winds will continue to pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend. Looking ahead, expect increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands late Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6-9 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will move west of Clarion Island through tonight, reach 15.0N 119.3W by Thu morning,14.6N 122.3W Thu evening, 14.1N 125.4W Fri morning, 13.7N 128.6W Fri evening, and 13.3N 131.8W Sat morning. Dora will change little in intensity as it moves west of 140W early Sun. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 05N and west of 115W through Thu, with combined seas reaching 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ AReinhart