000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021001 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Aug 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 15.8N 112.6W at 02/0900 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the southwest semicircle of Dora, and within 45 nm in the northeast semicircle. Maximum seas are around 20 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 90 nm of the center. Dora will continue to intensify through Thu as it moves westward with a gradual turn towards the west- southwest over the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific off the coasts of Panama and Colombia, passing through 77W north of 03N at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted along the coast of Colombia. A tropical wave extends along 93W north of 08N through southern Mexico and is drifting west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 94W and 99W. A tropical wave extends along 132W from 08N to 20N and is moving west around 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is noted where this wave is interacting with the monsoon trough near 12N. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm north of the center of the low. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N90W to 06N125W. The ITCZ extends from 10N133W to beyond 06N140W. In addition the convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 98W and 102W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Dora. Rough to very rough seas associated with Dora are impacting the waters south of Socorro and Clarion Islands. A small area of fresh to locally strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther south. Seas are around 6 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of Hurricane Dora depicted in the Special Features section above, the strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this morning. Expect fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off Baja California Norte late Thu into Sat. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure may bring fresh to strong winds and rough seas between Cabo Corrientes and Baja California Sur late Sat and Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo with 4 to 5 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N or 03N with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted S of 03N, with moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Strong thunderstorms are impacting the offshore waters Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua due to the tropical wave along 90W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. Moderate to fresh gap winds will return to the Gulf of Papagayo starting Thu. Looking ahead, expect increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands late Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 5-7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will move west of Clarion Island through tonight, reach 14.8N 120.5W Thu afternoon, 14.4N 123.5W Fri morning, 14.0N 126.8W Fri afternoon, and 13.5N 130.0W Sat morning. Dora will change little in intensity as it continues to move to the west of 140W Sun. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will move into the waters south of 05N and west of 115W through Thu, with combined seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Christensen