000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Dora is centered near 16.2N 111.5W at 02/0300 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center of Dora. Maximum seas are around 14 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 75 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Dora will continue to intensify as it moves westward with a gradual turn towards the west- southwest over the next few days. Seas are expected to build over 20 ft overnight and will continue to be over 20 ft through the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 91W north of 08N through Guatemala and is drifting west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from north of 12N between 91W and 93W. A tropical wave extends along 130W from 08N to 21N and is moving west around 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is noted where this wave is interacting with the monsoon trough near 12N. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 07N120W to 12N130W. The ITCZ extends from 12N130W to beyond 08N140W. In addition the convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 95W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Dora. Rough to very rough seas associated with Dora are impacting the waters south of Socorro Island. A small area of fresh to locally strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther south. Seas are around 5 ft in this area. Gusty winds and locally rough seas are possible near thunderstorms moving westward off the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala overnight. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of Hurricane Dora depicted in the Special Features section above, winds and seas offshore Baja California Norte may increase by Wed as a weak surface trough approaches the area. Fresh to strong N to NW winds can be expected through the rest of the week in this area with seas around 8 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo with 4 to 5 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N or 03N with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds are noted S of 03N, with moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Strong thunderstorms are impacting the offshore waters Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua due to the tropical wave along 90W. For the forecast, Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the region. Moderate to fresh gap winds will return to the Gulf of Papagayo starting Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on newly-upgraded Hurricane Dora. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 5 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 100W and 140W persists around 5-7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora is near 16.2N 111.5W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Dora will move to 16.1N 113.7W Wed morning, 15.8N 116.4W Wed evening, 15.5N 119.3W Thu morning, 15.0N 122.3W Thu evening, 14.4N 125.5W Fri morning, and 14.0N 128.7W Fri evening. Dora will change little in intensity as it continues to move westward through late Sat. Farther south, southerly swell will move into the waters south of 05N and west of 115W through Thu, with combined seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Christensen