000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 16.1N 108.6W at 01/1500 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 150 nm of the center. Maximum waves are about 12 ft within 45 nm of the NE quadrant. Dora is expected to gradually turn towards the west- southwest is expected over the next few days. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next 24-36 hours and Dora could become a major hurricane towards the latter half of this week. Seas are expected to build over 20 ft by Wednesday and near 40 ft by Fri. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 89W north of 06N through El Salvador, drifting west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 86W and 92W. A nearly stationary tropical wave extends along 126W from 07N to 21N. A 1009 mb low pressure is noted where this wave is interacting with the monsoon trough near 11N. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 09N109W to 07N133W. The ITCZ extends from 07N133W to beyond 07N140W. In addition the convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scatterd moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 83W and 109W. Scatterd moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N betweem 114W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with newly upgraded Tropical Storm Dora, described in the Special Features section above. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of Tropical Storm Dora, depicted in the Special Features section above, winds and seas offshore Baja California Norte may increase beginning late Wed, in association with a weak surface trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region today, then diminish tonight, with moderate W winds prevailing thereafter through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on newly-formed Tropical Storm Dora. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and 140W persists around 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the area. For the forecast, Dora will impact the waters between 10N and 20N as it develops and moves westward through the week. See hurricanes.gov for more information. Farther south, southerly swell will move into the waters south of 05N and west of 115W through Thu, with combined seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ AKR