000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Aug 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 16.0N 107.1W at 01/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Maximum wave heights are currently estimated to be about 11 ft near the center, but building. Dora will gradually strengthen as it continues westward through mid week, reaching hurricane strength well to the south of Clarion Island by Wed afternoon. Dora will retain hurricane strength as it continues westward through the latter part of the week, to the south of the subtropical ridge. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 87W north of 03N through Nicaragua, drifting west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 85W and 87W. A nearly stationary tropical wave extends along 125W from 03N to 19N. A 1011 mb low pressure is noted where this wave is interacting with the monsoon trough near 11N. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 08N107W to the 1011 mb low near 12N125W to 06N135W. The ITCZ continues from 06N135W to beyond 08N140W. In addition the convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 90W and 95W, and from 13N to 16N between 97W an 102W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with newly upgraded Tropical Storm Dora, described in the Special Features section above. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the impacts of Tropical Storm Dora, depicted in the Special Features section above, winds and seas offshore Baja California Norte may increase beginning late Wed, in association with a weak surface trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region today, then diminish tonight, with moderate W winds prevailing thereafter through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on newly-formed Tropical Storm Dora. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and 140W persists around 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the area. For the forecast, Dora will impact the waters between 10N and 20N as it develops and moves westward through the week. See hurricanes.gov for more information. Farther south, southerly swell will move into the waters south of 05N and west of 115W through Thu, with combined seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Christensen