000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310923
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96): A tropical wave is moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt through 101W, off the coast of Guerrero 
currently. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity with this
system has diminished in the past 12 hours, although a line of 
thunderstorms is evident west of the trough north of 15N along 
105W through Cabo Corrientes. Despite the relative lack of 
thunderstorm activity currently, environmental conditions 
continue to be favorable for gradual development of this trough, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by mid week as the 
system moves WNW, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and 
SW Mexico. There's still a high chance of tropical formation in 
the next 48 hours. For more information, please refer to the 
latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a 
tropical wave along 101W.

A tropical wave extends along 82W north of 03N through western
Panama, moving west at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection within 60 nm of the entire Pacific coasts of 
Panama and Colombia.

A tropical wave extends along 123W from 02N to 18N, drifting W 
at around 5 kt. A 1011 low pressure is noted where this wave is 
interacting with the monsoon trough near 12N. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass confirmed fresh winds within 60 nm on the
northeast quadrant of the low pressure, but no significant
convection.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N115W to the 1008 mb
low near 12N123W to beyond 11N140W. In addition the convection
described above in the Special Features and Tropical Wave
sections, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 13N between 89W and 93W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 100W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to
the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW
Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with EP96, 
described in the Special Features section above. These winds 
should diminish late today or tonight as the disturbance moves 
farther west of the area. Light to gentle breezes are noted 
elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over 
the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, aside from the impacts of EP96, depicted in the
Special Features section above, winds and seas offshore Baja 
California Norte may increase beginning late Wed, associated with
a weak surface trough. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo, 
with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of 
Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S 
swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds will 
pulse across the Papagayo region into tonight, with moderate to 
fresh W winds during each day. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a low
pressure near 12N122W. 

Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and
140W persists around 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, as described in the Special
Features section, a tropical cyclone is likely to develop S and
SW of Mexico early this week, and may move S and SW of the 
Revillagigedo Islands Wed night.

$$
Christensen