000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310319
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96): 1011 mb low pressure is 
analyzed 180 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico near 14N100W, along a 
tropical wave extending southward to 06N. The low and tropical 
wave complex is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the coast of
Guerrero and Michoacan. Environmental conditions continue to be 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form early this week as the system moves WNW, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southern and SW Mexico. There's a high 
chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. For more 
information, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a 
tropical wave along 97W.

A tropical wave extends along 81W north of 03N through western
Panama, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is ahead of the tropical wave within 60 nm of the coast of 
western Panama.

A tropical wave extends along 123W from 02N to 18N, moving W at
around 5 kt. A 1008 low pressure is noted where this wave is
interacting with the monsoon trough near 12N. Fresh winds where 
there are scattered moderate convection within about 90 nm east 
of the low may be inducing some locally higher winds.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N110W to the 1008 mb
low near 12N122W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate to 
isolated strong convection is active south of Panama from 03N to 
08N E of 87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to
05N between 85W and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to
the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW
Gulf of Mexico and low pressure associated with EP96, described
in the Special Features section above. These winds should
diminish later tonight as the disturbance moves farther west of 
the area. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with 
moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, aside from the impacts of EP96, depicted in the
Special Features section above, winds and seas offshore Baja 
California Norte may increase beginning late Wed, associated with
a weak surface trough. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo, 
with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of 
Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S 
swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds will 
pulse across the Papagayo region into tonight, with moderate to 
fresh W winds during each day. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a low
pressure near 12N122W. 

Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and
140W persists around 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, as described in the Special
Features section, a tropical cyclone is likely to develop S and
SW of Mexico early this week, and may move S and SW of the 
Revillagigedo Islands Wed night.

$$
Christensen