000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302044
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96): 1009 mb low pressure is
analyzed SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N99W, along a 
tropical wave extending southward to 06N. The low and tropical 
wave complex is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted offshore Oaxaca from 11N to
16N between 96W and 102W. Environmental conditions continue to be
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early this week as the system moves WNW, roughly
parallel to the coast of southern and SW Mexico. There's a high
chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. For more 
information, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a 
tropical wave along 97W.

A tropical wave extends along 122W from 02N to 18N, moving W at
around 5 kt. A 1009 low pressure is noted where this wave is
interacting with the monsoon trough near 12N. Fresh winds are
noted E of the low, and scattered moderate convection within 
about 120 nm E of the low may be inducing some locally higher
winds.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N108W to beyond 
09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
active south of Panama from 03N to 08N E of 87W. Scattered 
moderate convection is also noted from 05N to 07N between 87W 
and 93W and from 06N to 08N between 132W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to
the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the NW
Gulf of Mexico and low pressure associated with EP96, described
in the Special Features section above. These winds should
diminish tonight as the disturbance moves farther W of the area. 
Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas 
in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, aside from the impacts of EP96, depicted in the
Special Features section above, winds and seas offshore Baja 
California Norte may increase beginning late Wed, associated with
a weak surface trough. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo, 
with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of 
Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S 
swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds will 
pulse across the Papagayo region into tonight, with moderate to 
fresh W winds during each day. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a low
pressure near 12N122W. 

Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and
140W persists around 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, as described in the Special
Features section, a tropical cyclone is likely to develop S and
SW of Mexico early this week, and may move S and SW of the 
Revillagigedo Islands Wed night.

$$
KONARIK