000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301523
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jul 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96): 1009 mb low pressure is
analyzed SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N97W, along a 
tropical wave extending southward to 05N. The low and tropical 
wave complex is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted over the offshore waters of western 
Oaxaca ahead of the low pressure from 11N to 16N between 96W and 
100W. Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual 
development, and there is a medium chance of tropical formation
in the next 48 hours. A tropical depression will likely form 
early this week while the system moves west- northwestward, 
roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern 
Mexico. For more information, please refer to the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a 
tropical wave along 97W.

A tropical wave extends along 121W from 02N to 18N. Weak low
pressure has formed where the wave is interacting with the
monsoon trough, but no significant convection is noted near this
wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 07N105W to beyond 
09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
active south of Panama from 03N to 08N E of 86W. Scattered 
moderate convection is also noted from 05N to 07N between 86W and
89W, and from 05N to 07N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec have ended this
morning. However, strong N winds prevail due to the tight
pressure gradient between high pressure over teh Gulf of Mexico
and low pressure associated with EP96, described above. These
winds should diminish through the day as the disturbance moves
further west of the area.

Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas 
in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. The 
only exception is a very small area of fresh NW winds offshore
Cabo Corrientes. Convection near the Gulf of California has
diminished, leaving the only convection this morning in
association with EP96.

For the forecast, aside from the impacts of EP96, depicted in the
Special Features section above, winds and seas offshore Baja 
California Norte may increase beginning late Wed, associated with
a weak surface trough. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo, 
with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of 
Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S 
swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds will 
pulse across the Papagayo region through tonight, with moderate 
to fresh W winds during each day. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and
140W persists around 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, as described in the Special
Features section, a tropical cyclone is likely to develop south 
of Mexico early this week, and may move S and W of the
Revillagigedo Islands by Thu.

$$ KONARIK