000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec were reaching minimal gale force. These winds are enhanced by a tight gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, and developing low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, described below. The gale force gap winds will gradually diminish through the morning as the low moves west of the area. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96): 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 14N95W, along a tropical wave extending southward to 04N. The low and tropical wave complex is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted over the offshore waters of western Oaxaca ahead of the low pressure from 11N to 16N between 96W and 100W. Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual development, and there is a medium chance a tropical depression will likely form through early next week while the system moves west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. For more information, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please see the Special Features section for information on a tropical wave along 95W. A tropical wave extends along 120W from 02N to 18N. The tropical wave is moving into the drier, subsident side of an upper trough in the vicinity. No significant convection is noted near this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 07N100W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is active south of Panama from 03N to 07N between 80W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 05N to 07N between 86W and 89W, and from 05N to 07N between 96W and 98W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Aside from the gale force gap winds and low pressure in the Tehuantepec area described in the Special Features section, light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. The only exception is a very small area of winds to 20 kt off Cabo Corrientes per an earlier scatterometer satellite image. A few thunderstorms are evident inland over the coastal terrain of Sonora, and these may impact the northern Gulf of California later this morning. Other than that and the activity off Oaxaca, no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, in addition to the Tehuantepec gales and developing low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section, winds and seas offshore Baja California Norte may increase beginning late Wed, associated with a weak surface trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE to E gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo, with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through tonight, with moderate to fresh W winds during each day. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and 140W persists around 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas prevail across the area. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, as described in the Special Features section, a tropical cyclone may develop south of Mexico early in the week, possibly moving west of the Revillagigedo Islands by Thu. $$ Christensen