000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W, from the Yucatan Peninsula south to 05N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is north of 11N between 91W and 96W. This tropical wave has a LOW (30%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours. A tropical wave extends along 119W from 02N to 18N. The tropical wave is nearly stationary. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, likely enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is from 08N to 12N between 116W and 124W. A tropical wave extends along 138W from 03N to 13N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 12N west of 136W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N110W to 11N119W to 07N140W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is north of 05N east of 81W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is centered along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The gradient between this high pressure and lower pressure over tropical eastern Pacific is supporting strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, occasionally pulsing to near- gale force. As a result, seas are 8-10 ft in the region. Light to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the area, with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Sun. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of southern Mexico later this weekend. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is forecast and a tropical depression will likely form early next week while it moves west-northwestward toward the Revillagigedo Islands at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. Winds and seas offshore Baja California Norte may increase beginning Wed, associated with a weak surface trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds are within 750nm of Ecuador including the Galapagos Islands, with 4-6 ft seas in S swell. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region tonight and tomorrow night, with moderate to fresh W winds during each day. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Recent altimeter data indicates that swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N between 110W and 140W is diminishing to 4-6 ft, though a few isolated observations near 7 ft are noted. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the area. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas will prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, there is a high chance a tropical cyclone will develop south of Mexico early in the week, possibly moving west of the Revillagigedo Islands by Thu. $$ Mahoney/SBK