000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290834
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from the far SW Caribbean Sea, southward
along 86W to around 06N, moving W at around 10 kt. Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of the tropical
wave within 120 nm of the coast from northwest Nicaragua to 
Guatemala.

A tropical wave extends along 119W from 01N to 17N moving west 
at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed where
the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough from 09N to 11N
between 117W and 120W.

A tropical wave extends along 137W from 03N to 13N, moving west 
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is note from 05N 
to 08N between 137W and 139W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N105W to 11N119W to 
07N140W. The ITCZ continues west of 140W. In addition to the
convection described in the Tropical Wave section, scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 101W and
108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered along the northern coast of the Gulf 
of Mexico. The gradient between this high pressure and lower 
pressure over tropical eastern Pacific is supporting pulses of 
strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
occasionally reaching near- gale force. Wave heights in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec are likely reaching 8 ft. Light to moderate winds
dominate the remainder of the area, with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected to
persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Sun. Looking ahead, an 
area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of 
southern Mexico by late Sun. Thereafter, there is a high chance 
this system will gradually develop into a tropical depression 
while it moves west- northwestward generally toward the 
Revillagigedo Islands through the early to middle part of next 
week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo,
with 4 to 6 ft seas downstream. Gentle breezes persist 
elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas, except 5 to 6 ft over Ecuadorian 
waters in southerly swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds will 
pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun mainly at night and 
in the early mornings. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Southerly swell from the southern hemisphere is supporting 
combined seas to 7 ft south of 05N between 100W and 125W. A pair
of altimeter satellite passes indicated a band of combined seas
approaching 8 ft along 05N between 120W and 140W, likely in a mix
of southerly swell and local wind seas in an area of moderate to
fresh southerly swell. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, the area of seas to 8 ft will subside through
tonight as the swell decays. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are
forecast through the next several days. Moderate winds and seas 
will prevail into mid week. Looking ahead, there is a high chance
a tropical cyclone will develop south of Mexico early in the 
week, possibly moving west of the Revillagigedo Islands by Thu.

$$
Christensen