000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282017
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from the far SW Caribbean Sea, southward
along 84W to around 06N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N between 
81W and 86W.

A tropical wave extends along 118W from 01N to 17N moving west 
at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 
080N to 15N between 110W and 120W. 

A tropical wave extends along 134W from 03N to 15N, moving west 
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N 
to 10N between 129W and 136W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N109W to 09N135W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 10N to 12N between 106W and
109W and from 05N to 10N between 120W and 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1019 mb high pressure is centered along the northern coast of the 
Gulf of Mexico. The gradient between this high pressure and lower
pressure over tropical eastern Pacific is supporting pulses of 
strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
occasionally reaching near- gale force mainly overnight and 
during the early morning hours. Light to moderate winds dominate
the remainder of the area, with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected to
persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. The gradient
between high pressure over northern Mexico and a trough near the
Baja Peninsula will support fresh to occassionally strong SE
winds in the Gulf of California nightly through early Sun.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form off the
coast of southern Mexico by late Sun. Thereafter, there is a 
medium chance this system will gradually development into a 
tropical depression while it moves west- northwestward generally 
toward the Revillagigedo Islands through the early to middle part
of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo,
with 4 to 6 ft seas downstream. Gentle breezes persist 
elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas, except 5 to 6 ft over Ecuadorian 
waters in southerly swell. 

For the forecast, freshE gap winds will pulse across the 
Papagayo region through Sun mainly at night and in the early 
mornings. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Southerly swell from the southern hemisphere is supporting 
combined seas to 8 ft south of 05N between 100W and 125W. 
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate seas will prevail, 
maintaining around 8 ft S of 05N and W of 100W, gradually 
subsiding Sat night.

$$
KONARIK