000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281538
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is passing west through 82W at 10 kt, north of 
05N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident
from 03N to 05N between 80W and 83W. 

A tropical wave extends along 117W from 01N to 16N moving west 
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 
10N to 15N between 110W and 117W. 

A tropical wave extends along 130W from 05N to 17N, moving west 
at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from
06N to 11N between 128W and 133W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N107W to 09N130W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 104W and
106W, from 10N to 12N between 106W and 109W, and from 05N to 10N
between 117W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1019 mb high pressure is centered over the northern Gulf of 
Mexico. The gradient between this high pressure and lower 
pressure over tropical eastern Pacific is supporting pulses of 
strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
occasionally reaching near-gale force mainly overnight and during
the early morning hours. Similarly farther north, the gradient 
between a high pressure ridge over northwest Mexico and a surface
trough near the Baja Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh 
SE-S winds in the Gulf of California. Light to moderate winds 
dominate the remainder of the area, with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are 
expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. The 
gradient between high pressure over northern Mexico and a trough 
near the Baja Peninsula will support fresh to occassionally 
strong SE winds in the Gulf of California nightly through early 
Sun. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form off the 
coast of southern Mexico by late Sun. Thereafter, there is a 
medium chance this system will gradually development into a 
tropical depression while it moves west- northwestward generally 
toward the Revillagigedo Islands through the early to middle part
of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E gap winds are pulsing across
the Gulf of Papagayo, with 4 to 6 ft seas downstream. Gentle
breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas, except 5 to 6 ft
over Ecuadorian waters in southerly swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E gap winds will pulse across the
Papagayo region through Sun mainly at night and in the early
mornings. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Southerly swell from the southern hemisphere is supporting 
combined seas to 8 ft south of 05N between 100W and 125W. 
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate seas will prevail, 
maintaining around 8 ft S of 05N and W of 100W, gradually 
subsiding into Sun.

$$
KONARIK