000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280309
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave is passing west through 80W at 10 to 15 kt, north
of 05N. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 05N
between 79W and 81W. 

A tropical wave extends along 114W from 01N to 15N moving west 
at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 
14N to 17N between 110W and 113W. 

A tropical wave extends along 126W from 10N to 22N, moving west
at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this
wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N100W to 10N110W to
08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to 07N135W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 06N 
between 92W and 97W, from 10N to 13N between 100W and 105W, and 
from 08N to 10N between 103W and 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1018 mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressure over
tropical eastern Pacific is supporting pulses of fresh to strong
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, occasionally
reaching near-gale force mainly overnight and during the early
morning hours. Similarly farther north, the gradient between a 
high pressure ridge over northwest Mexico and a surface trough 
near the Baja Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh SE-S 
winds in the Gulf of California. Light to moderate winds dominate
the remainder of the area, with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected to
persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend. The
gradient between high pressure over northern Mexico and a trough
near the Baja Peninsula will support fresh to occassionally
strong SE winds in the Gulf of California nightly through early
Sun. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form off the 
coast of southern Mexico by late Sun. Thereafter, there is a
medium chance this system will gradually development into a 
tropical depression while it moves west- northwestward generally
toward the Revillagigedo Islands through the early to middle part
of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E gap winds are pulsing across
the Gulf of Papagayo, with 4 to 6 ft seas downstream. Gentle
breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas, except 5 to 6 ft
over Ecuadorian waters in southerly swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region through Sun mainly at night and in the
early mornings. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Southerly swell from the southern hemisphere is supporting 
combined seas to 8 ft south of 05N between 100W and 125W. 
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate seas will prevail, 
maintaining around 8 ft S of 05N and W of 100W, gradually 
subsiding into Sun.

$$
Christensen