000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271502
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jul 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends along 112W from 01N to 15N, moving west
at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 110W and 120W.

A tropical wave extends along 124W from 11N to 22N, moving west
at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this
wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N98W to 10N110W to
09N129W. The ITCZ continues from 09N129W to beyond 08N140W. In
addition to the convection described in the tropical wave
section, isolated moderate convection is observed from 02N to 09N
between 77W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
from 02N to 09N between 120W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to funnel into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with corresponding seas of 6-8 ft. The gradient 
between high pressure over mainland Mexico and a surface trough 
near the Baja Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh SE-S 
winds in the Gulf of California. Light to moderate winds dominate
the remainder of the area, with 3-5 ft seas in long period SW 
swell, with mixed NW swell offshore Baja California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are 
expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the 
weekend. The gradient between high pressure over northern Mexico 
and a trough near the Baja Peninsula will support fresh to 
occasionally strong SE winds in the Gulf of California nightly 
through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist elsewhere. Seas may build slightly offshore Baja 
California Norte this weekend in new NW swell. An area of low 
pres could form off the coast of S Mexico over the weekend to 
early next week. Thereafter, some gradual development of this 
system is possible while it moves generally WNW, roughly parallel
to the coasts of S and SW Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing W of Colombia and S of 
Panama. Fresh NE to E winds persist in the Papagayo region, 
where seas are 4-6 ft. 5-7 ft southerly swell continues south of
02N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh E gap winds in the Papagayo region will 
diminish through the morning. Winds will pulse to moderate to 
fresh, mainly at night, thereafter. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere, except for 
locally gusty winds near strong thunderstorms W of Colombia and S
of Costa Rica/Panama.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

S swell from the southern hemisphere is supporting combined seas
to 8 ft south of the equator between 100W and 120W. Elsewhere, 
mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across 
the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate seas will prevail, 
maintaining around 8 ft S of the Equator and W of 100W, gradually
subsiding through the weekend.

$$
Flynn