000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270733
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends along 110W/111W from 01N to 16N, moving 
west at around 15 to 20 kt. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 17N between 105W and 115W.

A tropical wave extends along 122W/123W from 11N to 23N, moving 
west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near
this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N98W to 11N110W to
08N117W to 11N125W to 09N129W. The ITCZ continues from 09N129W to
07N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed from 05N to 09N between 77W and 80.5W, within 210 nm
S of the monsoon trough between 91W and 105W, and within 360 nm 
S of the monsoon trough between 115W and 127W. Similar convection
is from 05N to 10.5N between 127W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to funnel into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec as measured by a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass, 
with corresponding seas of 6-8 ft. The gradient between high 
pressure over mainland Mexico and a surface trough near the Baja 
Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh SE-S winds in the Gulf 
of California. Light to moderate winds dominate the remainder of
the area, with 3-5 ft seas in long period SW swell, with mixed 
NW swell offshore Baja California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are 
expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the 
weekend. The gradient between high pressure over northern Mexico 
and a trough near the Baja Peninsula will support fresh to 
occasionally strong SE winds in the Gulf of California nightly 
through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist elsewhere. Seas may build slightly offshore Baja 
California Norte this weekend in new NW swell. An area of low 
pres could form off the coast of S Mexico over the weekend to 
early next week. Thereafter, some gradual development of this 
system is possible while it moves generally WNW, roughly parallel
to the coasts of S and SW Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing W of Colombia and S of 
Panama. Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist in the Papagayo 
region, where seas are 4-6 ft. 5-7 ft southerly swell continues 
south of 02N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E gap winds in the Papagayo 
region will diminish through the morning. Winds will pulse to
moderate to fresh, mainly at night, thereafter. Gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere, except for locally gusty winds near strong 
thunderstorms W of Colombia and S of Costa Rica/Panama.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Lingering seas to 8 ft in the W-central waters have subsided in
the past few hours. S swell from the southern hemisphere is 
supporting combined seas to 8 ft south of the equator between
100W and 120W. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast 
through the next several days. Moderate seas will prevail, 
maintaining around 8 ft S of the Equator and W of 100W, gradually
subsiding through the remainder of the week.

$$
Lewitsky