000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270126
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends along 107W/108W from 01N to 15N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
from 11N to 15N between 103W to 109W.

A tropical wave extends along 121W from 11N to 23N, moving west
at around 10 kt. No significant convection is observed near this
wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N94W to 09N109W to
07N117W to 09N129W. The ITCZ continues from 09N129W to 07N135W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 
11N between 77W and 87W, from 03N to 08N between 89W and 109W, 
from 03N to 09N between 114W and 129W, and from 06N to 11N 
between 129W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to funnel into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with seas of 6-8 ft. The gradient between high
pressure over mainland Mexico and a surface trough near the Baja
Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh SE-S winds in the Gulf
of California. 3-5 ft seas in long period SW swell dominate the 
remainder of the area, with mixed NW swell offshore Baja 
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are 
expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the 
weekend. The gradient between high pressure over northern Mexico 
and a trough near the Baja Peninsula will support fresh to 
occasionally strong SE winds in the Gulf of California nightly 
through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist elsewhere. Seas may build slightly offshore Baja 
California Norte this weekend in new NW swell. An area of low 
pres could form off the coast of S Mexico over the weekend to 
early next week. Thereafter, some gradual development of this 
system is possible while it moves generally WNW, roughly parallel
to the coasts of S and SW Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing south of Costa Rica and
Panama. Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist in the Papagayo
region, where seas are 5-7 ft. 5-7 ft southerly swell continues 
south of 02N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E gap winds will continue this
evening in the Papagayo region before decreasing to moderate by 
Thu. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will 
persist elsewhere, except for locally gusty winds near strong 
thunderstorms S of Costa Rica/Panama and W of Colombia. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Some lingering seas to 8 ft in NE-E swell is just E of 140W from
10N to 13N W of 139W along with fresh NE-E winds. S swell from 
the southern hemisphere is supporting combined seas to 8 ft south
of the equator between 95W and 120W. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, conditions in the W-central waters will subside
in the next few hours. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate 
winds are forecast through the next several days. Moderate seas 
will prevail, maintaining around 8 ft S of the Equator and W of 
95W through the remainder of the week.

$$
Lewitsky