000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262019
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends along 107W from 01N to 15N, moving west
at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 12N to 15N between 103W to 109W.

A tropical wave extends along 120W from 11N to 22N, moving west
at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near
this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N128W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N128W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 09N between 80W and 89W, and
from 04N to 09N between 102W and 110W. Scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 08N between
120W and 130W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 08N
to 12N west of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to funnel into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with seas of 6-8 ft. The gradient between high
pressure over mainland Mexico and a surface trough near the Baja
Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh SE-S winds in the Gulf
of California. 3-5 ft seas in long period SW swell dominate the 
remainder of the area, with mixed NW swell offshore Baja 
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are 
expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the 
weekend. The gradient between high pressure over northern Mexico
and a trough near the Baja Peninsula will support fresh to 
occasionally strong SE winds in the Gulf of California nightly 
through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist elsewhere. Seas may build slightly offshore Baja 
California Norte this weekend in new NW swell. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing south of Costa Rica and
Panama. Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist in the Papagayo
region, where seas are 5-7 ft. 5-7 ft southerly swell continues 
south of 02N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E gap winds will continue today
in the Papagayo region before decreasing to moderate by Thu. 
Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will 
persist elsewhere, except for locally gusty winds near strong 
thunderstorms S of Costa Rica/Panama and W of Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The axis of the robust tropical wave has crossed 140W this 
morning, but the conditions are lingering in the discussion area.
Specifically, fresh NE to E winds are noted from 10N to 15N, west
of 135W. These winds are maintaining 7-8 ft seas in the same
area. S swell from the southern hemisphere is supporting combined
seas to 8 ft south of the equator between 95W and 120W. 
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail across the area.

For the forecast, conditions associated with the robust tropical
wave will diminish east of 140W by tonight. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle to moderate winds are forecast through the next several 
days. Moderate seas will prevail, maintaining around 8 ft S of 
the Equator and W of 95W through the remainder of the week.

$$
Flynn