000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252047 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave extends along 102W from 15N to 02N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed near and north of the wave from 11N to 18N, between 100W and 105W. A tropical wave extends along 115W from 21N to 11N, moving west at around 15 kt. No convection is observed near this wave. A tropical wave extends along 136W from 15N to 02N, moving west at around 15 kt. The strong convection has quickly dissipated today, although scattered moderate convection still covers a large area from 05N to 12N between 128W and 142W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N100W to 08N106W. The ITCZ extends from 08N106W to 06N115W to 10N135W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave from 08N137W to beyond 06N140W. In addition to the convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection covers a large area south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 09N between 77W and 89W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N gap winds are funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, building seas to 6 ft. A surface trough along the Baja Peninsula is helping to support moderate NW winds in the Pacific waters west of the Peninsula and moderate SE winds in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere outside of thunderstorms. Long period S-SW swell dominates the majority of the area, with mixed NW swell offshore Baja California. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the weekend. A building gradient between high pressure over northern Mexico and a trough near the Baja Peninsula will generate fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of California nightly through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Seas may build slightly offshore Baja California Norte this weekend in new NW swell. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing offshore Colombia and Panama, though the activity is decreasing from this morning. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to strong NE gap winds are across the Papagayo region, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except 5-7 ft S-SW swell south of 02N. For the forecast, fresh to strong E gap winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region through Thu before decreasing to moderate Fri. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere, except for locally gusty winds near strong thunderstorms south of Costa Rica/Panama and west of Colombia. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The main feature outside of the offshore waters remains the robust tropical wave near 136W, though the convection and wind speed have both decreased today. Nonetheless, an area of fresh to strong NE winds persist just east of the northern portion of the wave. These winds are helping to maintain seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging dominates the basin N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. S swell from the southern hemisphere is supporting combined seas to 8 ft south of the equator between 100W and 120W. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the area. For the forecast, the robust tropical wave will shift W of 140W by Wed morning while the associated conditions will linger through Wed evening. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast through the next several days. Moderate seas will prevail, maintaining around 8 ft S of the Equator and W of 95W through the remainder of the week. $$ Flynn