000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251504
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends along 100W from 15N to 02N, moving west
at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed near
the northern portion of the wave from 11N to 17N, between 95W
and 106W.

A tropical wave extends along 114W from 21N to 11N, moving west
at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this
feature.

A robust tropical wave extends along 134/135W from 15N to 02N, 
moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate with isolated 
strong convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 128W and 
140W. A recent scatterometer pass found a distinct surface wind 
shift with southerlies east of the wave and NE winds west of the 
wave. The maximum sustained wind speeds are in the 20-25 kt range
with locally higher amounts near the stronger convection.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 08N95W to 07N110W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N110W to 09N120W to 10N131W. The ITCZ 
continues west of a tropical wave from 05N137W to beyond 04N140W.
Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is observed 
south of Panama and west of Colombia from 02N to 09N, east of 
85W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed throughout the
Mexican offshore waters south of 25N, including the entrance to
the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with 4-6 ft seas. Mainly gentle
to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere, outside of 
thunderstorms. Seas are 3-4 ft. S-SW swell dominates the majority
of the area, with mixed NW swell offshore Baja California.

For the forecast, expect fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through remainder of the week and into the upcoming 
weekend. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere, except for locally gusty winds near clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms in portions of the Gulf of California 
during overnight hours. Seas may build slightly offshore Baja 
California Norte this weekend in new NW swell.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are offshore Colombia and
Panama. Fresh to strong NE-E gap winds are across the Papagayo 
region along with 6-9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere, except possibly higher in thunderstorms. Outside
of the Papagayo region, seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except in 4-6 ft
S-SW swell south of 03N.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across 
the Gulf of Papagayo each night through Thu night, with moderate
to rough seas, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Winds will 
pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama mainly at night 
through Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere, except for locally gusty 
winds near clusters of showers and thunderstorms from Colombia to
Costa Rica. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A rather vigorous tropical wave near 134/135W, also described 
more above, has plentiful convection and fresh to strong winds 
near the central portion of the tropical wave. These winds 
combined with S swell is supporting seas to around 8 ft. 
Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging dominates the basin N of 
the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Southerly swell is also supporting 
combined seas to near 8 ft near and S of the equator between 110W
and 130W. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, the vigorous tropical wave and associated
conditions will shift W of 140W Wed night. Elsewhere, mainly 
gentle to moderate winds are forecast through the next several 
days. Moderate seas will prevail, reaching around 8 ft S of the 
Equator and W of 95W through much of the remainder of the week.

$$
Flynn