000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241535
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W from SE Mexico southward
to 02N, moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is 
described below.

The axis of a weak tropical wave is near 108W, from 02N to 20N, 
moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is 
evident with this tropical wave.

The axis of a tropical wave has been relocated to near 
131W, from 02N to 18N moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby 
convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 08N95W to 09N105W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N110W to 07N128W, and from 06N133W to beyond
09N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 
04N to 07N east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection from 03N 
to 08N between 82W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection from 
12N to 16N between 95W and 105W, and from 16N to 23N between 103W
and 107W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A few showers and thunderstorms persist across the area south of
the entrance to the Gulf of California, between Cabo Corrientes
and Cabo San Lucas. This activity is being enhanced by an upper
low centered over 13N105W, and may persist into the afternoon.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also active over
the offshore waters from western Oaxaca to Colima, associated
with overnight land breeze activity, and ahead of the tropical
wave near 94W/95W. For winds, moderate to fresh N winds are 
likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly gentle to locally 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters of 
Mexico outside of thunderstorms.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh gap winds across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec until around sunrise this morning, then winds
pulsing to fresh to strong at night beginning tonight through the
week. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere, except for locally gusty winds near clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms in portions of the Gulf of California 
during overnight hours.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are active between 
Colombia and western Panama related to overnight coastal
interactions. A few showers and thunderstorms are also farther
offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala, and near Cocos Island.  
Fresh to strong NE-E gap winds are across the Papagayo region 
along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama. Moderate southerly winds are S of 03N, with seas of 4-6 
ft in S-SW swell. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle breezes and 
3-4 ft seas are evident.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across 
the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the week, with moderate 
to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas will persist elsewhere, except for locally gusty winds near 
clusters of showers and thunderstorms from Colombia to Costa 
Rica. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure ridging dominates the basin N of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ, except for a surface trough along 135W/136W N 
of the ITCZ which is the remnants of T.D. Four-E. Locally fresh
to strong winds are found NW of this trough. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the remnant trough of Four-E will gradually
dissipate as it continues to move westward today. Elsewhere, 
moderate to occasionally fresh winds can be expected from 09N to 
15N and W of 127W today through the middle of the week, with 
seas building to around 8 ft in the W-central waters early Wed. 
Gentle to moderate winds are forecast thereafter and elsewhere. 
Moderate seas will prevail, building to around 8 ft S of the 
Equator and W of 95W later today through Wed.

$$
Christensen