000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240816
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W from SE Mexico southward
to 02N, moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is 
described below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W/108W, from 02N to 20N, 
moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
evident with this tropical wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W/122W, from 02N to 18N 
moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is 
described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09N89W to 10N96W to
08N112W. The ITCZ extends from 08N112W to 12N132W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 05N
to 07.5N between 78W and 82W, from 05N to 08N between 90W and 
97W, from 12N to 16.5N between 92W and 95W, and from 03N to 12N 
between 111W and 135W. Scattered moderate convection is evident 
from 03N to 17N between 97W and 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh N winds are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Mainly Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the 
offshore waters of Mexico, except possibly in the northern Gulf
of California where model guidance initialization is indicating a
surge of fresh to strong winds due to earlier nearby convection.
Seas of 3-5 ft prevail in S-SW swell, except NW swell offshore 
Baja California. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California,
except likely higher near the wind surge. Scattered thunderstorms
are occurring near Cabo Corrientes, with additional activity in 
the Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh gap winds across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec until around sunrise this morning, then winds
pulsing to fresh to strong at night beginning tonight through the
week. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere, except for locally gusty winds near clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms in portions of the Gulf of California 
during overnight hours.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Showers and thunderstorms are active off the coasts of Panama and 
Costa Rica, as well as offshore El Salvador and Guatemala. Fresh
to strong NE-E gap winds are across the Papagayo region along
with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama. 
Moderate southerly winds are S of 03N, with seas of 4-6 ft in 
S-SW swell. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle breezes and 3-4 ft 
seas are evident.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across 
the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the week, with moderate 
to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas will persist elsewhere, except for locally gusty winds near 
clusters of showers and thunderstorms from Colombia to Costa 
Rica. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure ridging dominates the basin N of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ, except for a surface trough along 135W/136W N 
of the ITCZ which is the remnants of T.D. Four-E. Locally fresh
to strong winds are found NW of this trough. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the remnant trough of Four-E will gradually
dissipate as it continues to move westward today. Elsewhere, 
moderate to occasionally fresh winds can be expected from 09N to 
15N and W of 127W today through the middle of the week, with 
seas building to around 8 ft in the W-central waters early Wed. 
Gentle to moderate winds are forecast thereafter and elsewhere. 
Moderate seas will prevail, building to around 8 ft S of the 
Equator and W of 95W later today through Wed.

$$
Lewitsky