000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210909 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly formed Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 14.5N 122.2W at 21/0900 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the northeast semicircle of Four-E, and from 10N to 13N between 121W and 127W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W N of 05N to across SE Mexico, approaching the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave over water. The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W N of 06N to near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 08N between 100W and 106W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W from 06N to 20N, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Please see the Special Features for more details on Tropical Depression Four-E which is co-located with this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N72W to 06N94W. The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 05N98W to 08N104W, then from 06N107W to 06N116W. Another monsoon trough segment is noted from 06N116W to Tropical Depression Four-E to 10N130W. Another ITCZ segment is noted from 10N130W to 06N140W. Aside from convection noted above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 77W and 90W, from 04N to 08N between 93W and 100W, and from 04N to 08N between 114W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 127W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5-8 ft are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A deep convective complex moved from mainland NW Mexico into the central and northern Gulf of California N of 26N during the past several hours, leading to a surge of 20-30 kt SE-S winds with locally higher gusts. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail under a weak NW to SE ridge across the waters, with seas of 3-5 ft. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, except higher near the convection. For the forecast, in the Tehuantepec region, the fresh to strong gap winds will prevail through early Sat, then moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail through Tue, possibly becoming fresh to strong late Tue night/early Wed. Moderate winds will develop in the Gulf of California Fri night into Sun, and from Mon night into Tue, with periods of locally fresh to strong southerly winds, especially if similar convection develops. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. A set of NW swell may build seas to around 7 ft offshore Baja California Norte Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, and seas of 5-7 ft are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 3-5 ft. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail with seas in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell per recent altimeter data. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas of 3-5 ft in S-SW swell. Deep conveciton has moved offshore western Colombia to the waters south of the Gulf of Panama potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will pulse each night/early morning through the forecast period. A surge of fresh to strong winds associated with convection may impact the waters near the Gulf of Panama and Azuero Peninsula Sat afternoon and night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail along with slight to moderate seas. Seas may build to around 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Mon night through Tue night in arriving SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features for more details on newly formed Tropical Depression Four-E. Aside from Tropical Depression Four-E, surface ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades are noted by recent ASCAT scatterometer data from 11N to 17N W of 133W, where seas are 6-8 ft. Mainly moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 11N and W of 125W, along with seas of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the open waters, including S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with seas of 5-7 ft, except 4-5 ft N of 20N and E of 125W. For the forecast, aside from Tropical Depression Four-E, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds with moderate seas can be expected N of the convergence zone and W of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Mainly moderate seas will prevail, building to around 8 ft S of the Equator and W of 100W early next week. $$ Lewitsky