195 AXPZ20 KNHC 202016 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific (EP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become a little more organized this morning. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for further development of this system during the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression could form while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the central portion of the eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, further development is not expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters stronger upper-level winds. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development over the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W N of 05N, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 87W and 91W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W N of 05N, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 102W and 106W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W/121W from 06N to 20N, moving west around 15 kt. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES for more on EP95 which is co-located with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N98W to 13N120W to 11N123W. The ITCZ extends from 11N123W to 09N140W. Aside from convection noted above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 80W and 86W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 107W and 120W, and from 05N to 16N between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6-8 ft are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting gentle to moderate winds over the open waters off Mexico with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds with seas of 2-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds along the Baja California offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle Sat night. Moderate winds will develop in the Gulf of California Fri night into Sun with periods of locally fresh southerly winds. In the Tehuantepec region, the fresh to strong gap winds will prevail through Fri afternoon, then moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and seas to 8 ft are noted over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Fri morning, and increase fresh to strong speeds again Mon night. Moderate winds and seas will affect the region between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Mon night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more on EP95. Aside from EP95, surface ridging prevails north of 20N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N and W of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are N of 20N with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast aside from EP95, moderate to locally fresh winds with moderate seas can be expected through the rest of the week. $$ AL