000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201001 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific (EP95): Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 113W and 120W. Fresh to strong winds are found within 300 nmi in the north semicircle of the low, which is centered near 13N118W. Environmental conditions appear to be somewhat conducive for further development of this system during the next day or two, and a short-lived tropical depression could form while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the central portion of the eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, further development is not expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters stronger upper-level winds. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development over the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVE... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W N of 05N, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at this time. The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W N of 05N, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 13N between 90W and 107W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W from 06N to 20N, moving west around 15 kt. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES for more on EP95 which is co-located with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 07N110W to 13N118W to 10N122W. The ITCZ extends from 10N122W to 09N140W. Aside from convection noted above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting the continuation of gentle to moderate NW across the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters along with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. In the Gulf of California, a surface trough is producing moderate to fresh S to SE winds N of 28N with seas to 3 ft. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds prevail and extend to 13N accompanied with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds along the Baja California offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle Sat night. Winds will diminish in the northern Gulf of California tonight and become moderate along the entire gulf Fri night into Sun with periods of locally fresh southerly winds. In the Tehuantepec region, the fresh to strong gap wind event will continue through Fri afternoon. Then moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and seas to 8 ft are ongoing in the region of the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, SE to S winds prevail with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Fri morning, and reach fresh to strong speeds again Mon night. Moderate winds and seas will continue to affect the region between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Mon night or end of the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to light to gentle speeds later today. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more on EP95. Aside from EP95, surface ridging prevails north of 16N and W of 117W. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Within this region, seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere N of 20N with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast aside from EP95, moderate to locally fresh winds with moderate seas can be expected through the rest of the week. $$ Ramos