000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200942
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central East Pacific (EP95):
Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N
between 113W and 120W. Fresh to strong winds are found within 300
nmi in the north semicircle of the low, which is centered near
13N118W. Environmental conditions appear to be somewhat conducive
for further development of this system during the next day or
two, and a short-lived tropical depression could form while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the central portion
of the eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, further development is
not expected as the system moves over cooler waters and
encounters stronger upper-level winds. There is a medium chance 
for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a 
medium chance for development over the next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W N of 05N, moving west 
around 15 to 20 kt. There is no significant convection 
associated with this wave at this time. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W N of 05N, moving west 
around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 
13N between 90W and 107W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W from 06N to 20N, moving
west around 15 kt. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES for more on EP95 
which is co-located with this wave. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 07N110W to 
13N118W to 10N122W. The ITCZ extends from 10N122W to 09N140W. 
Aside from convection noted above, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N W of 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting the
continuation of gentle to moderate NW across the Baja California
Peninsula offshore waters along with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range.
In the Gulf of California, a surface trough is producing moderate
to fresh S to SE winds N of 28N with seas to 3 ft. Over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds prevail and extend to 13N
accompanied with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds are
ongoing elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for 1-3 ft over
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds along the Baja
California offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle Sat
night. Winds will diminish in the northern Gulf of California
tonight and become moderate along the entire gulf Fri night into
Sun with periods of locally fresh southerly winds. In the Tehuantepec
region, the fresh to strong gap wind event will continue through
Fri afternoon. Then moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail
through Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft are over and downwind of
the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf 
of Panama. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas to 6 ft. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will to pulse in the
Papagayo region through Thu. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
with moderate to rough seas will persist off El Salvador through
today. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected in the Gulf of Panama until Thu morning.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds with moderately seas are
forecast between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the
remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for more on EP95.

Aside from EP95, high pressure prevails north of 20N. Gentle to 
moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are north of the ITCZ and 
west of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-6 ft range.

For the forecast aside from EP95, moderate to locally fresh 
winds with moderate seas can be expected through the rest of the 
week.

$$
Ramos