000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200404
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central East Pacific (EP95):
Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula continues to show signs of organization. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 16N
between 110W and 119W. Strong to near-gale force winds are found
within 330 nmi in the NE semicircle of the low, which is centered
near 13N117W. Environmental conditions appear to be somewhat 
conducive for further development of this system, and a short-
lived tropical depression could form during the next day or two 
while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the 
central portion of the eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, 
further development is not expected as the system moves over 
cooler waters and encounters stronger upper-level winds. There 
is currently a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in 
the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development over the 
next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W N of 04N, moving west 
around 15 to 20 kt. There is no convection associated with this
wave at this time. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W N of 03N, moving west 
around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
13N between 92W and 104W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 06N to 20N, moving
west around 15 kt. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES for more on EP95 
which is co-located with this wave. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 139W from 04N to 17N, moving
west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 
12N W of 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N100W to 12N117W to 
10N122W. The ITCZ extends from 10N122W to 09N136W. Aside from 
convection noted above, scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06N to 13N between 120W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7 to 8 ft, are over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, are
noted over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to locally 
moderate NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters 
with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
with seas of 3 to 4 ft, except for 1-2 ft over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will persist 
in the Tehuantepec region through Thu evening. A ridge will 
prevail across the Baja California offshore waters with gentle to
moderate northerly winds and moderate seas through Fri. Gentle 
to moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of California will become
moderate with locally fresh today and Thu, seas are expected to 
be slight to moderate.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft are over and downwind of
the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf 
of Panama. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas to 6 ft. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will to pulse in the
Papagayo region through Thu. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
with moderate to rough seas will persist off El Salvador through
today. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected in the Gulf of Panama until Thu morning.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds with moderately seas are
forecast between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the
remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see above for more on EP95.

Aside from EP95, High pressure prevails north of 20N. Gentle to 
moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are north of the ITCZ and 
west of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-6 ft range.

For the forecast aside from EP95, moderate to locally fresh 
winds with moderate seas can be expected through the rest of the 
week.

$$
Ramos