415 AXPZ20 KNHC 181003 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave is near 88W from the Yucatan Peninsula southward across Honduras into the East Pacific, and moving west around 20 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident off the Guatemala coast. Another tropical wave is near 107W from Jalisco State in Mexico southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 100W and 110W, and also near the coast of Jalisco. A third tropical wave is near 123W from 21N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 09N between 115W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from the Panama-Colombia border through 08N95W to 07N110W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the Gulf of Panama and waters near northwestern Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 11N between 91W and 100W. An ITCZ continues northwestward from 07N110W to 10N121W, then resumes southwestward from 09N124W to beyond 03N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen up to 180 nm south, and 100 nm north of both ITCZ segments. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high over the Gulf of Mexico is channeling moderate to fresh winds across the Bay of Campeche into southern Mexico, causing fresh to strong gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and nearby waters. Farther north, weak ridging persists over most of the area. This is sustaining gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Refer to the Tropical Wave section for additional convection in the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northerly winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft are forecast to persist in the Tehuantepec region through Thu evening. Farther north, a weak ridge will continue to dominate the Baja California offshore waters with gentle to moderate northerly winds and moderate seas through Fri. Gentle to moderate southerly winds in the Gulf of California will become moderate with locally fresh Wed and Thu, seas are expected to be slight to moderate. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergent westerly winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Ecuador-Colombia border and nearby waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 95W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the remainder of the offshore waters north of 03N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell are observed south of 03N. Refer to the InterTropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section for additional weather in the area. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas are forecast to pulse in the Papagayo region through Thu. Moderate to fresh easterly winds with moderate to rough seas will persist off El Salvador through Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and slight to moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Panama until Thu morning. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with moderately seas are forecast between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The latest wave model suggest 8 ft seas in mixed swell well east of T.S. Calvin, east of 138W from 16N to 20N. Expect these seas to steadily drop below 8 ft later this morning. A ridge prevails across the waters north of 17N anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of the area near 36N137W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of 115W due to the influence of the ridge. Seas range 4 to 7 ft. Southerly winds are moderate to locally fresh south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough with seas 4 to 6 ft. Wind and seas could be higher near the convective activity along the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop along a tropical wave as it moves westward from near 123W. Northerly swell will impact the northern waters through this evening, bringing seas near 8 ft N of 28N between 127W and 131W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds with moderate seas can be expected north and south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough through the rest of the week. $$ Forecaster Chan