000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151551
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Calvin is centered near 14.7N 129.0W at 15/1500 UTC
moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of
center. Seas in excess of 12 ft seas extend within 210 nm N 
semicircle and 150 nm S semicircle with maximum seas estimated to
reach 36 ft. Calvin continues WNW over the eastern Pacific 
waters. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar 
forward speed is expected for the next several days. Calvin is 
forecast to cross 140W on Mon. Weakening is expected through 
early next week. Swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin
reaching the Hawaiian Islands early next week. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National 
Hurricane Center at web-site 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Hurricane Calvin Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave is along 83W N of 04N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
The wave extends northward over the NW Caribbean. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the southern
end of the wave axis from 02N to 07N between 80W and 85W.

A second tropical wave is along 105W N of 04N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is
behind the wave axis from 12N to 16N between 100W and 105W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere
along the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 08N95W to 09N105W to 
09N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N134W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to
07N between 80W and 85W, from 06N to 16N between 85W and 97W, 
from 12N to 16N between 100W AND 105W, and from 04N to 11N 
between 100W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California and extends toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle 
to moderate NW winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to 
gentle southerly winds are over the Gulf of California where seas
are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Moderate to fresh northerly winds 
prevail in the Tehuantepec region with seas of 4 to 6 ft. 
Elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, 
light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell are 
noted.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the weekend generating
gentle to moderate NW winds with seas in the 4 to 5 ft range. 
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of California with 
seas of 3 ft or less. Fresh winds will pulse at night across the 
Tehuantepec region through the middle of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft persist in 
the Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W. Light to gentle 
winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted over the remainder of the 
offshore waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
are noted south of 02N where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are forecast in 
the Papagayo region through the middle of next week with seas of
5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds will dominate the remainder of 
the offshore forecast waters, with the exception of gentle to 
moderate southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, and gentle to moderate E winds across the offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Outside of the Papagayo 
region, seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Hurricane Calvin.

Aside from Calvin, a ridge prevails across the north waters anchored
by a 1023 mb high pressure center located N of the area near 36N137W.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted under the influence of the ridge.
Wind and seas could be higher near the convective activity along
the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough.

For the forecast, Hurricane Calvin will continue to move away 
from the Mexican offshore waters. Calvin will move to 15.3N 
131.1W this evening, 16.0N 134.1W Sun morning, weaken to a 
tropical storm near 16.6N 137.1W Sun evening, 17.1N 140.5W Mon 
morning, 17.6N 144.0W Mon evening, and 18.1N 147.6W Tue morning. 
Calvin will change little in intensity as it moves to the 19.1N 
154.9W early Wed.  Seas in excess of 8 ft generating by Calvin, 
will continue to propagate across the open waters, covering the 
area from 10N to 23N between 128W and 138W by Sun morning. 

$$ 
GR