122 
AXPZ20 KNHC 142110
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Major Hurricane Calvin is centered near 13.8N 124.6W at 14/2100 
UTC moving WNW at 14 kt. This general motion is expected to 
continue for the next several days. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with 
gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted 
within 75 nm of center. Scattered moderate convection is 
elsewhere from 12N to 16N between 120W and 125W. Seas in excess 
of 12 ft seas extend within 120 nm S semicircle and 180 nm NE and
150 nm NW quadrants with maximum seas estimated to reach 38 ft. 
Calvin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast to commence tomorrow and 
continue through early next week. Looking ahead, swells generated
by Calvin are expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands early next 
week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National 
Hurricane Center at wed-site 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Hurricane Calvin Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 100W and N of 05N to 
near Acapulco, Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are
near the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across the Gulf of Panama near 08N79W
to 06N96W. The ITCZ extends from 06N102W to 05N115W, then resumes
at 09N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection can be found from 04N to 08N E of 80W including the 
Gulf of Panama, from 10N to 13N between 110W and 114W, SE of 
Calving from 05N to 09N between 115W and 120W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 10N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California and extends toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Under
the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail 
with seas of 4 to 6 ft, highest near Clarion Island. Light to gentle
southerly winds are over the Gulf of California where seas are 
generally in the 1 to 3 ft range. The most recent scatterometer
pass indicate fresh northerly winds in the Tehuantepec region 
with seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere across the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5
ft in SW swell are noted.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the weekend generating
gentle to moderate NW winds with seas in the 4 to 5 ft range.
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of California with 
seas of 3 ft or less. Major Hurricane Calvin will continue to 
move away from the Mexican offshore waters over the next 24
hours.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds with seas of 5 to 6 ft 
persist in the Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W. Light 
to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted over the remainder
of the offshore waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds are noted south of 02N where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are 
forecast in the Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds will dominate the 
remainder of the offshore forecast waters, with the exception of 
gentle to moderate southerly winds between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands, and gentle to moderate E winds across the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Outside of the 
Papagayo region, seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Hurricane Calvin.

Aside from Calvin, a ridge prevails across the north waters anchored
by a 1025 mb high pressure center located N of the area near 36N135W.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the
ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds N of the ITCZ
and W of 130W with seas of 5 to 7 ft based on altimeter data. S 
of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to moderate with seas ranging 4 to 
6 ft in southerly swell. Wind and seas increase near the convective
activity along the ITCZ/Monsoon trough.

For the forecast, Hurricane Calvin will continue to move away 
from the Mexican offshore waters reaching near 14.3N 126.7W Sat 
morning, 15.1N 129.5W Sat afternoon, 15.7N 132.4W Sun morning, 
16.3N 135.5W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 16.9N
138.5W Mon morning, and will be W of area near 17.4N 141.9W Mon 
afternoon. Seas in excess of 8 ft, generating by Calvin, will 
continue to propagate across the open waters over the next 24 to 
48 hours, covering the area from 08N to 19N between 118W and 126W
by early Sat afternoon. 

$$
GR