000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141559
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Calvin rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane. Calvin
is centered near 13.6N 123.2W at 14/1500 UTC moving W at 14 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is noted within 75 nm of center. Scattered 
moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 16N between 120W and
125W. Seas in excess of 12 ft seas extend within 180 nm NE, 120 
nm SE, 90 nm SW and 150 nm NW quadrants with maximum seas estimated
to reach 36 ft. On the forecast track, a west to west- northwest
motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next 
several days. Some additional strengthening is possible today. 
Weakening is forecast to commence tomorrow and continue through 
early next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National 
Hurricane Center at wed-site 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Hurricane Calvin Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 98W and N of 06N to 
southern Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant 
convection at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across the Gulf of Panama near 08N79W
to 06N95W. The ITCZ extends from 06N102W to 05N115W, then resumes
at 09N133W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection can be found of 120W from 03N to 08N E of 80W to the
coast of Colombia, from 03N to 06N between 100W and 105W, SE of
Calvin from 06N to 10N between 115W and 120W, and from 06N to 10N
between 129W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California producing mainly moderate NW winds with seas of 4
to 6 ft, highest near Clarion Island. Gentle to moderate SE winds
are over the northern part of the Gulf of California while mainly
light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are generally in
the 1 to 3 ft range. Fresh northerly winds are blowing in the 
Tehuantepec region with seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere across the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds 
and seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell prevail. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the weekend generating
gentle to moderate NW winds with seas in the 4 to 5 ft range.
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of California with 
seas of 3 ft or less. Hurricane Calvin will continue to move away
from the Mexican offshore waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds with seas of 5 to 6 ft 
persist in the Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W. Light 
to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted over the 
remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted south of 02N where seas are 4 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast 
in the Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend with seas of 
5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds will dominate the remainder of 
the offshore forecast waters, with the exception of gentle to 
moderate southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, and gentle to moderate E winds across the offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Outside of the Papagayo 
region, seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Hurricane Calvin.

Aside from Calvin, a ridge prevails across the north waters anchored
by a 1022 mb high pressure center located N of the area near
33N135W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate NE
to E winds N of the ITCZ and W of 130W. S of the ITCZ, winds are
gentle to moderate with seas ranging 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell.

For the forecast, Hurricane Calvin will continue to move away
from the Mexican offshore waters reaching near 14.0N 125.3W this
evening, 14.7N 128.1W Sat morning, 15.3N 131.0W Sat evening, 
16.0N 133.9W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 16.6N 
137.0W Sun evening, and 17.2N 140.4W Mon morning. Calvin will 
change little in intensity as it moves to near 17.9N 147.8W early
Tue. Seas in excess of 8 ft, generating by Calvin, will continue
to propagate across the open waters covering the area from 08N 
to 21N between 122W and 132W by Sat morning.

$$
GR