808 
AXPZ20 KNHC 140909
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Calvin is centered near 13.2N 121.9W at 14/0900 UTC
moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N 
between 118W and 124W. Seas in excess of 12 ft seas extend within
180 nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm S semicircle, and 120 nm NW 
quadrant, with maximum seas estimated to reach 26 ft. Some 
additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. 
Gradual weakening is expected to commence by the weekend as 
Calvin begins to move over cooler water and into a less favorable
surrounding environment. Seas will continue to build over the 
next few days and peaking over 30 ft from tonight through Sun. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 97W and N of 06N to 
southern Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along the wave from 10N to 19N between 96W 
and 103W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N101W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N101W to 07N115W, then resumes from 10N124W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 14N 
and E of 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California. Moderate winds with seas to 5 ft are noted in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in 
the Oaxaca offshore waters due to the tropical wave with seas to 
6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder
of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas of 1-3 ft are over the Gulf 
of California. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail elsewhere. Strong 
thunderstorms are noted in the Oaxaca offshore waters due to the 
tropical wave described above. 

For the forecast, northerly winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec today. Hurricane Calvin continues to move W away from
southern Baja California. Light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas will prevail across the area through the forecast period. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds with seas of 5-6 ft persist in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted 
over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are noted south of 02N where seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered 
thunderstorms are noted across the Central American offshore 
waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh to strong gap winds across the Papagayo
region will continue pulsing each evening through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Hurricane Calvin.

Aside from Calvin, high pressure prevails north of 20N anchored 
by a 1023 mb high pressure center N of the area near 33N136W. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of 
the ITCZ and W of 130W. S of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to 
moderate with seas ranging 4-6 ft in southerly swell.

For the forecast, the main feature between 10N and 20N is 
Hurricane Calvin which will continue moving westward through the
weekend. Hurricane Calvin will move to 13.6N 124.0W this 
afternoon, 14.3N 126.8W Sat morning, 14.9N 129.6W Sat afternoon, 
15.6N 132.5W Sun morning, 16.3N 135.4W Sun afternoon, and weaken 
to a tropical storm near 16.9N 138.7W Mon morning. Calvin will 
change little in intensity as it moves to 17.6N 145.9W by early 
Tue. N of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 
ft will prevail through the weekend. S of 10N, gentle to moderate
winds can be expected. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail over the next
few days before Calvin approaches the area.

$$
ERA