000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140325
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Calvin is centered near 13.3N 120.5W at 14/0300 UTC
moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N 
between 117W and 123W. Seas in excess of 12 ft seas extend 150 
nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm SE quadrant, 60 nm SW quadrant and
120 nm NW quadrant, with maximum seas estimated to reach 26 ft
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend as 
Calvin begins to move over cooler water. Seas will continue to build 
over the next few days and peaking over 30 ft from tonight 
through Sun morning. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 96W and N of 06N to 
southern Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along the wave from 11N to 17N between 93W 
and 100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N104W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N104W to 08N115W, then resumes from 10N126W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 15N 
and E of 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N 
to 14N and E of 106W, and from from 05N to 20N and W of 128W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California. Moderate winds with seas to 5 ft are noted in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate winds and seas to 8 ft are 
over the outer offshore waters of Cabo Corrientes. This is due to
the outer portion influences of Hurricane Calvin. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted in the Oaxaca offshore waters due to the
tropical wave with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds prevail over the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. 
Seas of 1-3 ft are over the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-5 ft 
prevail elsewhere. Strong thunderstorms are noted in the Oaxaca 
offshore waters due to the tropical wave described above. 

For the forecast, northerly winds will pulse to fresh at night 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend. Hurricane Calvin 
is located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California. The system is bringing 8 ft seas in the outer 
offshore waters of the southern Baja California offshore waters 
tonight. These seas will subside by Fri morning. Otherwise, 
Hurricane Calvin will have little impact on the rest of the 
Mexico offshore waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds with seas of 5-6 ft persist in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted 
over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are noted south of 02N where seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered 
thunderstorms are noted across the Central American offshore 
waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh to strong gap winds across the Papagayo
region will continue pulsing each evening through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Hurricane Calvin.

Aside from Calvin, high pressure prevails north of 20N anchored 
by a 1022 mb high pressure center N of the area near 34N136W. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of 
the ITCZ and W of 125W. S of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to 
moderate with seas ranging 5-7 ft in southerly swell.

For the forecast, the main feature between 10N and 20N is 
Hurricane Calvin which will continue moving westward through the
weekend. Hurricane Calvin will move to 13.7N 122.7W Fri 
morning, 14.3N 125.5W Fri evening, 14.9N 128.4W Sat morning, 
15.5N 131.2W Sat evening, 16.2N 134.2W Sun morning, and weaken to
a tropical storm near 16.7N 137.4W Sun evening. Calvin will 
change little in intensity as it moves to 17.7N 144.2W 
by late Mon. N of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 
ft will prevail through the weekend. S of 10N, gentle to moderate
winds can be expected. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail over the next
few days before Calvin approaches the area.

$$
ERA