000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131559
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jul 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Newly upgraded Hurricane Calvin is centered near 12.7N 117.1W at
13/1500 UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with 
gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
around Calvin from 09N to 16N between 112W and 120W. The 12 ft
seas extend 125 nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm in the NW quadrant,
and 60 nm in the south semicircle. Peak seas are currently near
20 ft. Calvin is expected to continue moving westward during the
next several days. Some additional strengthening is forecast 
during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin
by the weekend, as Calvin begins to move over cooler water. Seas
will continue to build over the next few days and peaking over 
30 ft from tonight through Sun morning. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 94W and N of 07N to
southern Mexico, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave, 
mainly N of 07N between 90W and 100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to a low pressure near 08N81W with a central pressure of 1007 mb
to 09N95W to 10N109W. The ITCZ extends from 11N128W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
06N to 14N and E of 109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 13N between 127W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California. Moderate winds with seas to 6 ft are noted in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 
ft are over the outer offshore waters of Cabo Corrientes. This is
due to the outer portion influences of Hurricane Calvin. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of 
the Mexico offshore waters. Seas of 1-3 ft are over the Gulf of 
California. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail elsewhere. Scattered 
thunderstorms are noted south of the Gulf of California and the 
outer offshore waters of Michoacan. Stronger thunderstorms are 
noted in the Oaxaca offshore waters due to the tropical wave 
described above. 

For the forecast, northerly winds will pulse to moderate to 
fresh at night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend. 
Hurricane Calvin is located several hundred miles southwest of 
the southern tip of Baja California. The system could bring 8 ft 
seas in the outer offshore waters of the southern Baja California
offshore waters today. These seas will subside by tonight. 
Otherwise, Hurricane Calvin will have little impact on the rest 
of the Mexico offshore waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds with seas of 5-6 ft persist in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted 
over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are noted south of 02N where seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered 
thunderstorms are noted across the Central American and Colombia 
offshore waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh to locally strong gap winds across the 
Papagayo region will continue pulsing each evening through the 
forecast period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Hurricane Calvin.

Aside from Calvin, high pressure prevails north of 20N anchored 
by a 1024 mb high pressure center N of the area near 32N140W. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of 
the ITCZ and W of 125W. An area of 8 ft seas is noted from 08N 
to 10N and W of 138W. S of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to moderate
with seas ranging 5-7 ft in southerly swell.

For the forecast, the main feature between 10N and 20N is 
Hurricane Calvin which will continue moving westward through the
weekend. Hurricane Calvin will move to 13.0N 119.2W this 
evening, 13.5N 122.1W Fri morning, 14.1N 124.9W Fri evening, 
14.7N 127.8W Sat morning, 15.3N 130.8W Sat evening, and 16.0N 
133.9W Sun morning. Calvin will weaken to a tropical storm over 
17.0N 140.4W early Mon. The area of 8 ft swell will subside later
today. N of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft 
will prevail through Fri. S of 10N, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail through the weekend. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail over 
the next few days before Calvin approaches the area. 

$$
AReinhart