000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130942
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Calvin is centered near 12.4N 116.0W at 13/0900 
UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 08N to 15N 
between 112W and 119W. Additional strengthening is forecast 
during the next couple of days, and Calvin is forecast to become 
a hurricane today. Seas will continue to build over the next few
days and peaking over 30 ft from tonight through Sun morning. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 92W and N of 06N, moving 
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails along 
the northern portion of the wave, mainly N of 10N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from new to new, then resumes near 
new to new. The ITCZ continues from new to beyond new. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 14N and E of 108W and 
from 06N to 14N and W of 121W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds with seas to 5 ft are 
noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh winds and 
seas to 6 ft are over the outer offshore waters of Cabo 
Corrientes. This is due to the outer portion influences of T.S. 
Calvin. Moderate winds are noted in the northern Gulf of 
California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail over the 
remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas of 1-3 ft are over 
the Gulf of California, reaching 4 ft at the entrance to the 
Gulf. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, northerly winds will pulse to moderate to 
fresh at night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend. 
T.S. Calvin is located several hundred miles southwest of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. The system could bring 8 ft seas in
the outer offshore waters of the southern Baja California 
offshore waters today. These seas will subside by tonight. 
Otherwise, T.S. Calvin will have little impact on the rest of 
the Mexico offshore waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds with seas of 5-6 ft persist in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are noted 
over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are noted south of 02N where seas are 4-7 ft. Scattered 
thunderstorms are noted across the Central American offshore 
waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh to strong gap winds across the Papagayo
region will continue pulsing each evening through the forecast 
period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on T.S. Calvin.

Aside from Calvin, high pressure prevails north of 20N anchored 
by a 1024 mb high pressure center N of the area near 30N140W. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of 
the ITCZ and W of 125W. An area of 8-9 ft seas is noted from 07N 
to 17N and W of 135W. Elsewhere, seas range 5-7 ft in southerly 
swell. 

For the forecast, the main feature between 10N and 20N is 
T.S. Calvin which will continue moving westward through the 
weekend. Calvin will strengthen to a hurricane near 12.7N 118.2W 
this afternoon, move to 13.2N 121.0W Fri morning, 13.8N 123.8W 
Fri afternoon, 14.4N 126.7W Sat morning, 15.0N 129.6W Sat 
afternoon, and 15.7N 132.6W Sun morning. Calvin will weaken to a 
tropical storm over 16.8N 138.9W by early Mon. N of 20N, gentle 
to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft will prevail through Fri. S 
of 10N, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the 
weekend. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail over the next few days 
before Calvin approaches the area. 

$$
ERA