000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122157
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Calvin is centered near 12.8N 113.8W at 12/2100
UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65
kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted
from 08N to 16N between 111W and 118W. The 12 ft seas extend 90
nm in the NE quadrant and 45 nm in the NW quadrant with the peak
seas near 15 ft. Calvin will continue moving westward around 15
kt over the next several days. Additional strengthening is 
forecast during the next couple of days, and Calvin is forecast 
to become a hurricane tonight. Seas will continue to build over
the next few days and peaking over 30 ft from Thu night through
Sun morning. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 09N98W to 11N108W and from 13N117W to 12N124W. The ITCZ
continues from 12N124W to 10N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 15N
and E of 108W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
15N between 120W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh winds with seas to 5
ft are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds and seas to 6 ft are over the outer offshore waters 
of Cabo Corrientes. This is due to the outer portion influences of
TS Calvin. Moderate winds are noted in the northern Gulf of 
California. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail over the 
remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas of 1-3 ft are over 
the Gulf of California, reaching 4 ft at the entrance to the 
Gulf. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, northerly winds will pulse to moderate to 
fresh at night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend. 
Tropical Storm Calvin is located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The system could bring 8 ft
seas in the outer offshore waters of the southern Baja California
offshore waters on Thu. These seas will subside by Thu night.
Otherwise, Tropical Storm Calvin will have little impact on the
rest of the Mexico offshore waters.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds with seas of 6-7 ft persist in the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are noted 
over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are found south of 02N where seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted across the Central American offshore
waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. The strong gap winds across the Papagayo 
region will diminish today and will continue pulsing fresh to
locally strong through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Tropical Storm Calvin.

Aside from TS Calvin, high pressure prevails north of 20N 
anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure center N of the area near 
33N147W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. An area of 8-9 ft seas 
is noted from 07N to 17N and W of 135W. Otherwise, seas range 6-8
ft in northerly swell. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Southerly swell with 
seas to 8 ft are noted S of 02N and west of 135W. Seas of 5-7 ft 
are elsewhere across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, the main feature between 10N and 20N is 
Calvin which will continue moving westward across these waters 
through the weekend. N of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas 
of 5-7 ft will generally prevail through Fri. S of 10N, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail through the weekend. Southerly swell
bringing 8 ft seas will continue to subside through tonight. Seas
of 4-7 ft is expected to prevail over the next few days before TS
Calvin approaches the area. 

$$
AReinhart