000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121600
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Calvin is centered near 12.7N 112.2W at 12/1500
UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted
from 09N to 14N between 110W and 116W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 12N to 16N between 108W and
116W. The 12 ft seas extend 45 nm in the NW quadrant with peak
seas at 12 ft. Calvin is moving toward the west near 16 mph and 
this motion is expected to continue the next several days.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of 
days, and Calvin is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow. Seas
will continue to build over 12 ft over the next few days, peaking
around 30 ft from Thu night through Sat night. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 11N107W and then from 13N117W to 11N126W. The ITCZ
continues from 11N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 16N and E of 
103W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N 
between 121W and 138W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-6 ft are 
noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh 
winds and seas of 6-7 ft, are over the outer offshore waters of 
Cabo Corrientes, on the outer portion of TS Calvin. Light to 
gentle winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. 
Seas of 1-3 ft are over the Gulf of California, reaching 4 ft at 
the entrance to the Gulf. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, northerly winds will pulse to moderate to 
fresh at night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec the next several 
nights. Tropical Storm Calvin is located several hundred miles 
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The system will 
have little impact on the forecast waters as it moves westward 
and further from the offshore waters of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds with seas of 6-7 ft prevail in the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are noted 
over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 5-6 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Theo strong gap winds across the Papagayo 
region will diminish today and will continue pulsing to fresh
through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Tropical Storm Calvin.

Aside from TS Calvin, high pressure prevails north of 20N 
anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure center N of the area near 
33N137W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds N of 10N and W of 125W. An area of 8-9 ft seas is 
noted from 08N to 19N and W of 129W. Otherwise, seas range 6-8 
ft in northerly swell. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Southerly swell with 
seas to 8 ft are noted S of 02N and west of 135W. Seas of 5-6 ft 
are elsewhere across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, the main feature between 10N and 20N is 
Calvin, which will shift across those waters the remainder of 
the week through the weekend. N of 20N, gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 5-7 ft will generally prevail. S of 10N, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail. Southerly swell helping for seas to 
8 ft will subside today, with seas of 4-7 ft prevailing afterwards.

$$
AReinhart