000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120854
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Calvin is centered near 12.4N 
110.6W at 12/0900 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 109W and 113W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere 
from 06N to 15N between 106W and 114W. Seas are currently peaking
near 12 ft. Calvin is forecast to intensify as the system remains
on a general westward track the next few days. The current 
forecast is for Calvin to reach hurricane intensity on Thursday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N98W to 13N115W to 
11N125W. The ITCZ continues from 11N125W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N 
between 93W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 10N to 13N between 120W and 130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft.  
are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate winds, and seas of
6-7 ft, are over the outer offshore waters of Cabo Corrientes, 
on the outer portion of TS Calvin. Light to gentle winds 
dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas of 1-3 ft 
are over the Gulf of California, reaching 4 ft at the entrance to
the Gulf. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, northerly winds will pulse to moderate to 
fresh at night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec the next several 
nights. Tropical Storm Calvin is located several hundred miles 
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The system will 
have little impact on the forecast waters as it moves westward 
and further from the offshore waters of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are noted 
over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 5-6 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh to strong gap winds across the Papagayo
region will diminish today. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Tropical Storm Calvin.

Aside from TS Calvin, high pressure prevails north of 20N 
anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure center N of the area near 
33N137W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds N of 10N and W of 130W. An area of 8-9 ft seas is 
noted from 10N to 22N and W of 125W. Otherwise, seas range 6-8 ft
in northerly swell. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough,
gentle to moderate winds are noted. Southerly swell with seas to
8 ft are noted S of 02N and west of 135W. Seas of 5-6 ft are 
elsewhere across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, the main feature between 10N and 20N is 
Calvin, which will shift across those waters the remainder of 
the week through the weekend. N of 20N, gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 5-7 ft will generally prevail. S of 10N, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail. Southerly swell helping for seas to 
8 ft will subside today, with seas of 4-7 ft prevailing 
afterwards. 

$$
AL