000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120240
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 12.6N 109.4W at
12/0300 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is noted within 30 nm E and 60 nm W of the center. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere 
from 08N to 16N between 106W and 112W. Seas are currently 8-10 
ft. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 kt and this
motion is expected to continue during the next several days. 
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the 
system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity in about 48 
hours.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W to 14N115W to 
11N125W. The ITCZ continues from 11N125W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N 
between 80W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
10N to 13N between 120W and 132W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft.  
are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate winds, and seas of
6-7 ft, are over the outer offshore waters of Cabo Corrientes, 
on the outer portion of TD Three-E. Light to gentle winds 
dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas of 1-3 ft
are over the Gulf of California, reaching 4 ft at the entrance to
the Gulf. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge over the regional waters
will weaken a little by mid-week. Northerly winds will pulse to 
moderate to fresh at night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec the next 
several nights. Tropical Depression Three-E is located a few 
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. The system 
is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 20 kt over
the next several days, remaining well offshore of the coast of 
Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are noted 
over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 4-5 ft in decaying 
southerly swell. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh to strong gap winds across the Papagayo
region will diminish Wednesday. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Tropical Depression Three-E.

Aside from TD Three-E, high pressure prevails north of 20N 
anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure center N of the area near 
35N137W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds N of 10N and W of 125W. An area of 8-9 ft seas is 
noted from 10N to 22N and W of 125W. Otherwise, seas range 6-8 ft
in northerly swell. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough,
gentle to moderate winds are noted. Southerly swell with seas to
8 ft are noted S of 02N and west of 135W. Seas of 5-6 ft are 
elsewhere across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, winds and seas N of the ITCZ will decrease 
as Tropical Depression Three-E continues progressing westward 
over the next few days. The area of swell will begin to subside 
tonight and drop below 8 ft by Wed night. Southerly swell
supporting seas to 8 ft over the waters S of 02N will subside 
tonight.

$$
AL