000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112200
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jul 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 12.5N 107.9W at
11/2100 UTC moving WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 09N to 15N between 104W and 111W. Seas are currently
8-9 ft. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
20 kt and this motion is expected to continue during the next 
several days. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and it is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or 
Wednesday. Seas will build to over 12 ft by Wednesday afternoon. 

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to TD Three-E near 12N107W to 11N122W to 06N138W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N138W to beyond 05N140W. Aside from 
convection noted with TD Three_E above, scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted E of 97W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 115W and 134W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on TD Three-E.

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the Baja 
California offshore waters. Seas over this area range 5-6 ft 
in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the Gulf of 
California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with seas 
ranging 2-4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4-7 
ft are found over the Tehuantepec region, as well as south of 
southern Mexico. Scattered convection is noted in the Michoacan
offshore waters in addition to Oaxaca offshore waters. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge over the regional waters
will weaken a little by mid-week. Fresh northerly gap winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, pulsing to locally 
strong late tonight. Tropical Depression Three-E is located a 
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. 
The system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward 
at 20 kt over the next several days, remaining well offshore of 
the coast of Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are noted 
over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 4-5 ft in decaying 
southerly swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region 
will pulse to strong at night through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on Tropical Depression Three-E.

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 1029 mb high 
pressure center N of the area near 35N141W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds. An area of seas 8-9
ft is noted from 22N to 10N and W of 125W. Otherwise, seas range
6-8 ft in northerly swell. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Southerly swell with 
seas to 8 ft are noted S of 02N and west of 135W. Seas of 5-6 ft
are elsewhere across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, winds and seas N of the ITCZ will begin to 
decrease tonight as Tropical Depression Three-E continues 
progressing westward over the next few days. The area of swell 
will begin to subside tonight and drop below 8 ft by Wed night. 
The southerly swell will support seas to 8 ft over the waters S 
of 02N will subside tonight.

$$
AReinhart