000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Souther Mexico (EP94): 
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better 
organized in association with an area of low pressure located a few 
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N between
101W and 109W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 09N to 14N between 110W and 113W. The system does 
not yet have a well- defined center, but is producing winds near 
tropical- storm- force on its west side. Any additional 
organization of the low- level center will lead to a tropical 
storm developing later today or tonight. The system is expected 
to move westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the 
next several days, remaining well offshore of the coast of 
Mexico. There is a high chance for development in the next 48
hours and also for the next 7 days. In anticipation of tropical
cyclone development, a gale warning has been issued beginning
late tonight. Seas are expected to build to over 12 ft by Wed. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W/105W from 04N to 17N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. This wave is co-located with EP94 
discussed above. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to EP94 near 11N105W to 14N118W to 05N137W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N137W to beyond 04N140W. Aside from convection
noted with EP94 above, scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted E of 93W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 13N between 120W and 131W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on EP94.

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the Baja 
California offshore waters. Seas over this area are in the 5-6 
ft range in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the Gulf 
of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with 
seas ranging 2-4 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft 
are found over the Tehuantepec region, as well as south of 
southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge over the regional waters
will weaken a little by mid-week. Fresh northerly gap winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, pulsing to strong late
tonight. EP94 is located a few hundred miles south of the 
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression 
or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight. 
The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 
15 to 20 mph over the next several days, remaining well offshore 
of the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance for development in
the next 48 hours. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft are noted 
over the remainder of waters north of 02N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 5-6 ft in decaying 
southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region 
will pulse to strong at night through most of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information
on EP94.

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 1026 mb high 
pressure center N of the area near 35N140W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds. An area of seas 8-9
ft is noted from 23N to 10N and W of 120W. Otherwise, seas range
6-8 ft in northerly swell. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Southerly swell with 
seas to 8 ft are noted S of 02N and west of 115W. Seas of 5-6 ft 
are elsewhere across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds with seas in 
the 6-9 ft range will continue today before starting to 
decrease. The area of swell will begin to subside tonight and
drop below 8 ft by Wed night. The southerly swell will support 
seas to 8 ft over the waters S of 02N will subside tonight.

$$
AReinhart