000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102154
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Presently, satellite
imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 10N to
12N between 100W-104W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 12N to 18N between 103W-107W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N to 14N between
98W-101W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next couple of days. The system is expected to
move westward to west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of
the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance for development in
the next 48 hours and also for the next 7 days.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward at 10 kt. This wave is co-located with EP94 discussed 
above. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W from 10N to 23N. Low
pressure of 1006 mb, former EP93, is along the wave near 
20N114W. Very minimal shower activity is well removed from the 
low center within 30 nm of 17N118W. A recent ASCAT pass showers 
fresh SE to S within 120 nm of the low in the SE quadrant, and 
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere within about 210 nm of the 
low. Seas of 8-9 ft due to mixed swell are present from 18N to 
29N between 115W-131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to EP94 near 10N99W 
to 13N108W to 10N122W to 06N132W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N132W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from convection noted with EP94
above, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen 
from 05N to 08N between 77W-89W, and within 180 nm N of the 
trough between 90W-95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
60 nm S of the trough between 120W-124W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information 
more on EP94

Aside from the low pressure, former EP93, a surface ridge 
continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are noted over the
Baja California offshore waters. Seas over this area are in the 
6-8 ft range in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the 
Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail 
with seas ranging 2-4 ft except for higher seas of 5-6 ft in 
southerly swell across the entrance. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5-6 ft are found over the Tehuantepec region, north of 
EP94. 

For the forecast, broad surface ridge over the regional waters 
will weaken a little by mid-week. Fresh northerly gap winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue. These winds will pulse 
to o strong late at night and into the mornings during the rest 
of the week. The low will continue westward while weakening. EP94
is located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of 
Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds to its N and NE will shift west 
of the outer offshore waters by late Tue.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during 
the next couple of days. The system is expected to move westward 
to west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of 
Mexico. There is a high chance for development in the next 48 
hours and also for the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail in 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5
ft are elsewhere N of 10N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 
4-5 ft, are noted over the remainder of waters north of 02N. 
Gentle to moderate winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 
5-6 ft in decaying southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region 
will pulse to strong at night tonight through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information 
more on EP94.

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 1027 mb high 
pressure center well N of the area near 36N138W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and the remnant low 
of EP93 is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of 20N and E of 
125W. Seas over this area are in the 7-8 ft range. Gentle to 
moderate northeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere 
north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. To the south of the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Decaying 
swell from the Southern Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 
5-6 ft across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will shift slightly through
tonight. This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough to moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft 
range. Northerly swell in the waters N of 29N and E of 124W will 
combine with E to SE swell generated by the former low of EP93, 
across the waters E of 125W through Tue. Southerly swell will 
build seas to 8 ft over the waters S of 02N through Tue, then 
subside afterward.

$$
Aguirre