000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100831
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better
organized associated with an area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between
96W and 102W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted elsewhere from 01N to 16N between 94W and 105W.  
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
additional development during the next several days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week. The system is expected to move westward to 
west- northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance for 
development in the next 48 hours and a high chance of development
in the next 7 days. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W N of 06N, moving 
westward at 10 kt. This wave is co-located with EP94, discussed
above. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 08N to 21N. This 
wave is co-located with EP93. Associated convection is discussed
below.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to EP94 near 10N98W to
08N104W to 12N113W to 07N133W. The ITCZ continues from 07N133W to
07N140W. aside from convection noted with EP94 above, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 113W and
120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information 
more on EP94.

There is only limited shower activity well removed from the
center of EP93, and tropical cyclone development is no longer
expected. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the vicinity of
the low, with seas of 8-9 ft. 

Aside from EP93, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
are noted over the Baja California offshore waters. Seas over 
this area are in the 6-8 ft range in a mix of northerly and 
southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft except for 
higher seas of 6-7 ft in southerly swell across the entrance. 
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are found over the 
Tehuantepec region, north of EP94. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will persist across the
regional waters through early this week. Fresh northerly gap 
winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue, diminishing in
the afternoon. Development of EP93 continues to become less 
likely. The low will continue westward while weakening. EP94 is 
located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of 
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive 
for additional development of this low during the next several 
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
middle to latter part of this week. The system is expected to 
move westward to west- northwestward, remaining well offshore of 
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a medium 
chance for development in the next 48 hours and a high chance of 
development in the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail in 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5
ft are elsewhere N of 10N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 
4-5 ft, are noted over the remainder of waters north of 02N. 
Gentle to moderate winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 
5-6 ft in decaying southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Low pressure, EP94, has formed south of 
Tehuantepec leading to an increase in winds across the waters W 
of 90W. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to 
strong at night tonight through Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information 
more on EP94.

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 1026 mb high 
pressure center N of the area near 36N141W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and EP93 is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds N of 20N and E of 125W. Seas 
over this area are in the 7-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate 
northeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere north of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Decaying swell from 
the Southern Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 5-6 ft 
across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will shift slightly SE today. 
This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 
moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. 
Northerly swell in the waters N of 29N and E of 124W will combine
with SE to E swell generated by EP93, across the waters E of 
125W Mon through Tue. Southerly swell will build seas to 8 ft 
over the waters S of 02N early this week. 

$$
AL