000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100232
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W/98W N of 06N, moving 
westward at 10 kt. Associated convection is discussed below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 08N to 21N. This 
wave is co-located with EP93. Associated convection is discussed
below.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W 11N97W to 08N104W to
12N114W to 07N132W. The ITCZ extends from 07N132W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N
to 16N between 83W and 103W, and from 10N to 18N between 110W and
118W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to decrease in 
association with the broad low pressure area (EP93) several 
hundred miles west of the coast of western Mexico. This system is
moving west-northwestward into a less favorable environment, and
the chances of tropical cyclone formation are decreasing. Fresh
to strong winds and seas to 10 ft continue in the vicinity of
this low. 

Aside from EP93, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
are noted over the Baja California offshore waters. Seas over 
this area are in the 6-8 ft range in a mix of northerly and 
southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft except for 
higher seas of 6-7 ft in southerly swell across the entrance. 
Gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft are found over the Tehuantepec 
region. 

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will persist across the
regional waters through early next week. Winds off of Baja
California Norte will pulse to fresh tonight. Fresh northerly
gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue,
diminishing in the afternoon. Development of EP93 continues to
become less likely. The low will continue westward while
weakening. A trough of low pressure a few hundred miles south of
southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for gradual development during the next several days, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to 
latter part of this week. The system is expected to move westward
to west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a low chance of
formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 
days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail in the Gulf
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are 
noted elsewhere north of 02N. Gentle to moderate winds are found
south of 02N, where seas are 5-6 ft in decaying southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the
next several days. Low pressure is expected to form S of 
Tehuantepec early this week leading to freshening winds across 
the waters W of 90W. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region 
will pulse to strong at night Mon through Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N anchored by a 1025 mb high 
pressure center N of the area near 36N142W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and EP93 is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds N of 20N and E of 125W. Seas 
over this area are in the 7-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate 
northeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere north of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Decaying swell from 
the Southern Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 5-6 ft 
across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will shift slightly SE through 
Mon. This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to
moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. 
Northerly swell in the waters N of 29N and E of 124W will 
combine with SE to E swell generated by EP93, across the waters
E of 125W Mon through Tue. Southerly swell will build seas to 8
ft over the waters S of 02N Tue. 

$$
AL