000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 09 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93): Shower and thunderstorms remain disorganized around the broad low several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Low pressure of 1005 mb is analyzed near 18.5N112W. Presently, scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 14N between 110W-116W, and from 16N to 18N between 113W-116W. Winds of 20-30 kt, and seas to 12 ft are associated to this low pressure, except between 110W-11W from 17N to 19N where SE to S gale winds 25-35 kt are expected to last into early this evening. A Gale Warning remains in effect for these outer offshore waters of SW Mexico. By tonight, the system is expected to move west northwestward into a less favorable environment well west of the coast of mainland Mexico. Therefore, development of a tropical cyclone is becoming less likely. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W from 06N to 16N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 06N to 13N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 13N to 16N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 08N to 21N. This wave is co-located with EP93, discussed above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N92W to 07N105W. It resumes at 13N116W to 07N130W. The ITCZ extends from 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the trough between 81W-86W, and also between 120W-125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information more on EP93. Aside from EP93, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are noted over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere across the remainder of the Baja California offshore waters. Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft range in a mix of northerly and southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with seas ranging 2-4 ft except for higher seas of 6-7 ft in southerly swell across the entrance. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft are found over the Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will persist across the regional waters through early next week. Winds off of Baja California Norte will pulse to fresh tonight. Fresh northerly gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue, diminishing in the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased this morning, and remains disorganized around the broad low several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. By tonight, the system is expected to move west- northwestward into a less favorable environment well west of the coast of mainland Mexico. Therefore, development of a tropical cyclone is becoming less likely. A Gale Warning is in effect for the outer offshore waters between 110W-112W through early this evening. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described above in relation to the tropical wave that is along 96W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of the upcoming week. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast for the waters S of southern Mexico starting early Tue from about 13N to 15N and between 100W-106W as a tight pressure gradient develops between this next system and the Mexican coast. The system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are noted elsewhere north of 02N. Gentle to moderate winds are found south of 02N, where seas are 5-6 ft in slow decaying southerly swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the next several days. Low pressure is expected to form S of Tehuantepec early this week leading to freshening winds across the waters W of 90W. Fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong at night Mon through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains north of 20N anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure center well N of the area near 33N139W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of about 120W. To the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to S winds are noted. Swell from the Southern Hemisphere continues to produce seas of 6-7 ft across the waters S of 10N and W of 90W. For the forecast, high pressure will shift slightly SE through Mon. This will increase winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to moderate to locally fresh, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Northerly swell in the waters N of 29N and E of 124W will combine with SE to E swell generated by EP93, across the waters E of 125W Mon through Tue. $$ Aguirre